Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 12

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday


	Virtus		Tre Penne

	1	X	2
	2.28	2.92	3
	2.34	2.88	3.01
	2.37	2.97	3.05	Watch
	2.33	2.94	3.01
	2.33	2.85	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.12)	2.91 ↓ (3.25)	3.01 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Virtus
38.9%

Draw
31.1%

Tre Penne
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

28.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Virtus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Tre Penne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Virtus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Virtus - Tre Penne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Benincasa S. ⚽, Buonocunto I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 0, Zenoni M. ⚽, Lombardi T. (A),
79', 2 - 1, Badalassi I. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Virtus won 4.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Tre Penne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Virtus is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Virtus won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Virtus won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Virtus
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
29.11.25	Domagnano - Virtus	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Virtus - Tre Fiori	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Virtus	0:3 ✺
01.11.25	Virtus - San Giovanni	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Virtus - Faetano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWWW
- Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
29.11.25	Folgore - Tre Penne	1:3 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Tre Penne - Juvenes-Dogana	1:1 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
22.11.25	Tre Penne - Murata	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tre Penne - Domagnano	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Tre Penne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
06.04.25	Virtus - Tre Penne	2:0
07.12.24	Tre Penne - Virtus	1:2
20.04.24	Tre Penne - Virtus	0:1
14.01.24	Virtus - Tre Penne	1:2
San Marino Super Cup
01.09.23	Tre Penne - Virtus	0:2
San Marino Coppa Titano
27.05.23	Virtus - Tre Penne	3:1
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
08.03.23	Tre Penne - Virtus	2:1

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