Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: AlbinoLeffe (Zanica)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Folgore Caratese		Alcione

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	2.90	2.65
	2.55	2.92	2.75	Watch
	2.95	2.99	2.63
	2.56	3.06	2.71	Watch
	2.9	2.85	2.6
	2.66	3.33	2.55	Watch
	2.55	2.95	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.25)	3 ↑ (2.95)	2.66 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore Caratese
34.6%

Draw
30.8%

Alcione
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.8%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.6%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore Caratese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Folgore Caratese's form might have worsened.

Alcione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alcione's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Folgore Caratese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcione, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Folgore Caratese - Alcione Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salvalaggio D. (G) 4. Samotti N. 5. Marchetti S. 43. Bassino A. 24. Bellia E. 8. Castellano F. (C) 72. Vignoli M. 92. Tessiore A. 18. Ambrosini M. 77. Mezsargs K. 61. Santarcangelo A.	69. Nava L. (G) 5. Sadotti E. 6. Ciappellano D. 4. Miculi A. 19. Trapani N. 18. Lopes E. 23. Galli G. (C) 21. Parlati S. 10. Pitou J. 96. Palombi S. 14. Rolfini A.
Substitutes
11. Balzano M. 25. Benvenuto M. 12. Castelnuovo M. (G) 99. D'Amico F. 80. Di Dio F. 19. Duca T. 22. Facchini T. (G) 14. Guidi R. 6. Ndoj E. 28. Pedicillo L. 10. Vacca A.	2. Baldacchino S. 17. Braida A. 3. Chierichetti P. 81. Gallazzi F. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 31. Marconi M. 67. Mocchi T. 11. Morselli F. 8. Muroni M. 25. Pirola F. 20. Puzzoli G. 1. Raffaelli F. (G) 98. Zini L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Lopes E. ⚽, Rolfini A. (A),
39', Samotti N. 🟨,
44', Ciappellano D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Ciappellano D. ↓, Chierichetti P. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Mezsargs K. ⚽,
53', Ambrosini M. ↓, Balzano M. ↑,
53', Vignoli M. ↓, Pedicillo L. ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Pitou J. ⚽, Rolfini A. (A),
62', Rolfini A. ↓, Morselli F. ↑,
66', Tessiore A. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
66', Santarcangelo A. ↓, D'Amico F. ↑,
69', Ndoj E. 🟨,
71', Ndoj E. ↓, Vacca A. ↑,
75', Marchetti S. 🟨,
79', Palombi S. ↓, Braida A. ↑,
88', Galli G. ↓, Muroni M. ↑,
88', Trapani N. ↓, Pirola F. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, D'Amico F. (Penalty Awarded),
90+13', 2 - 3, Morselli F. ⚽,

Preview

Folgore Caratese is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alcione has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Folgore Caratese has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Folgore Caratese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Folgore Caratese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Alcione - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.84%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie C Group A
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Folgore Caratese - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Giana Erminio - Folgore Caratese	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Sassuolo - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTLLT
- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
07.09.26	Alcione - Treviso	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Alcione	0:0 ✺
21.08.26	Alcione - Renate	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Alcione - Novara	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.26	Mantova - Alcione	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
12.02.23	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	0:2
09.10.22	Alcione - Folgore Caratese	1:2

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