Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: North Lodge Park (Pitmedden)


	Formartine United		Edinburgh City

	1	X	2
	1.27	5	8
	1.39	4.33	6.00
	1.26	5.35	8.8
	1.22	5.75	8.6
	1.45	4.55	6.3	Watch
	1.18	5	8.1
	1.3	5.24	8.38
	1.33	4.6	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (2.89)	4.98 ↑ (3.59)	7.62 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Formartine United
69.8%

Draw
18.2%

Edinburgh City
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

25.1%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

25.2%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Formartine United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+38.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Formartine United's performance.

Edinburgh City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-31.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Edinburgh City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Formartine United than the current prediction. (-38.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Formartine United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Edinburgh City than the current prediction. (+31.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Edinburgh City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Formartine United - Edinburgh City Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Formartine will win (votes: 14 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Formartine: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Formartine (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Formartine (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Formartine (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Wade J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, Ritchie H. ⚽, Abari G. (A),
83', 2 - 0, Wade J. ⚽,

Preview

Formartine has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Edinburgh City is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Formartine may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Edinburgh City	5	3	1	1	6:4	2	10
16	Formartine Utd	5	3	0	2	11:8	3	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Formartine United
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Formartine United - Montrose	3:2 ✺
Scottish Highland League
19.09.26	Formartine United - Lossiemouth	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Fraserburgh - Formartine United	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Clachnacuddin - Formartine United	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Formartine United - Dundee United 2	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWTTL
- Edinburgh City FC
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Edinburgh City - Dundee United 2	1:0 ✺
Scottish League Two
19.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Edinburgh City	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Edinburgh City - Stirling Albion	7:3 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Edinburgh City - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
Scottish League Two
05.09.26	Clyde - Edinburgh City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTL

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