Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 19 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4, SportyNet, Xsports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fortaleza		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.50	5.00
	1.62	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.7	3.53	5.96
	1.68	3.45	5.62	Watch
	1.66	3.4	5.8
	1.69	3.42	5.26	Watch
	1.64	3.45	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.74)	3.44 ↓ (3.6)	5.54 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
56.1%

Draw
27.1%

São Bernardo
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

25.8%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

25.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Fortaleza - São Bernardo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - São Bernardo (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 50%). São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 3. Lucas Gazal 6. Cardona T. 13. Mauricio Junior 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pierre 75. Rodriguinho 16. Pedro Henrique 9. Miritello J. B. 11. Vitinho	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson 3. Helder Maciel 6. Para 8. Foguinho (C) 26. Dudu Miraima 17. Romisson 42. Hyoran 29. Pedrinho 9. Felipe Garcia
Substitutes
4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 32. Luiz Fernando 17. Nathan Fogaca 23. Neris 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	97. Augusto 30. Breninho 89. Daniel Amorim 37. Davi D. 27. Echapora 21. Hugo Sanches 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 98. Leo Jaba 31. Lucas Fernandes 14. Lucas Lima 90. Luizao 11. Pedro Vitor
Coaches
Autuori P.	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 1 - 0, Lucas Sasha ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Pedrinho ⚽, Dudu Miraima (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Para ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
59', Hyoran ↓, Pedro Vitor ↑,
64', Vitinho ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
64', Pedro Henrique ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
64', Mauricio Junior ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
64', Dudu Miraima ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
68', Pierre 🟨,
75', Miritello J. B. ↓, Welliton ↑,
81', Pedrinho ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
81', Felipe Garcia ↓, Leo Jaba ↑,
81', Pierre ↓, Ryan ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 12).

Fortaleza has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Bernardo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fortaleza is the team to beat.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Lucca Prior (Knee Injury) Pedro Henrique (Suspended)

There will not play in São Bernardo: Mario Sergio (Injury) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Ronald (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in São Bernardo: Lucas Fernandes (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
15.08.26	Juventude - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Cuiabá - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
02.08.26	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
28.07.26	Fortaleza - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TTWLW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
14.08.26	São Bernardo - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
07.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
26.07.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	3:4 ✺
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	São Bernardo - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	São Bernardo - Fortaleza	0:1

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