Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Deretti C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fortaleza		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.20	4.00	Watch
	2.00	3.00	3.75
	1.98	3.15	3.95	Watch
	2.09	3.16	4.31
	1.82	3.33	4.71	Watch
	2.01	3.10	4.25
	2.01	3.08	3.97	Watch
	1.99	3.10	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.87)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	4.11 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
47.3%

Draw
29.9%

Botafogo SP
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.4%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

27%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	57.1%	0%

Fortaleza - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 13. Mauricio Junior 23. Neris 3. Lucas Gazal 22. Mailton 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 11. Vitinho 88. Lucas Sasha 16. Pedro Henrique 9. Miritello J. B.	1. Victor Souza (G) 31. Pedro Henrique 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 100. Patrick Brey (C) 16. Matheus Sales 8. Everton Morelli 30. Ze Hugo 10. Rafael Gava 23. Wesley Santos 18. Arthur Caike
Substitutes
6. Cardona T. 33. Kaua Rocha 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 32. Luiz Fernando 17. Nathan Fogaca 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	25. Adriano (G) 26. Felipe Vieira 22. Gabriel Inocencio 17. Guilherme Queiroz 11. Jefferson Nem 12. Jordan (G) 5. Leandro Maciel 28. Marco Antonio 29. Thiago Moraes 13. Wallace
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Vilar 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Ronald ⚽,
66', Ze Hugo ↓, Jefferson Nem ↑,
66', Arthur Caike ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
69', Matheus Sales 🟨,
72', Miritello J. B. ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
80', Rafael Gava ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
80', Wesley Santos ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
82', Pedro Henrique ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
82', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
89', Matheus Sales ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
90+2', Lucas Sasha ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
90+2', Rodriguinho ↓, Cardona T. ↑,
90+8', Felipe Vieira 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 15).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Fortaleza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Yellow Cards) Machuca I. (Suspended) Pierre (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Knee Injury) Darlan (Injury) Erik Rebello (Inactive) Jonathan (Injury) Yuri Felipe (Red Card)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Hygor (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.85%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
21.07.26	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWW
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.26	Botafogo SP - Juventude	4:2 ✺
17.07.26	Londrina - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
10.07.26	Sport Recife - Botafogo SP	3:3 ✺
06.07.26	Botafogo SP - Avaí	3:1 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Botafogo SP - Fortaleza	4:0

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