Match Info

Serie B - Round 21

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+, RedeTV!
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cuiabá		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.75	2.82	Watch
	2.70	2.80	2.70
	2.60	2.80	3.10	Watch
	2.82	2.89	3.01
	2.4	2.91	3.3	Watch
	2.75	2.85	2.95
	2.78	2.78	2.86	Watch
	2.75	2.80	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.45)	2.82 ↓ (2.91)	2.94 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
34.8%

Draw
33.2%

Fortaleza
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

32.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

32.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Cuiabá - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Marcelo Carne (G) 13. Joao Basso 5. Calebe Costa 4. Vitor Mendes 2. Igor Inocencio 8. Pepe 30. Raul (C) 36. Lorenzo 77. Jean Dias 96. Pedro H. 11. Eliel	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 23. Neris 3. Lucas Gazal 18. Fuentes G. 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pierre 11. Vitinho 75. Rodriguinho 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.
Substitutes
39. Guilherme Mansano 1. Joao Carlos (G) 26. Joao Vitor 41. Kauan Cristtyan 91. Luis Soares 97. Luiz Otavio 23. Marcos Junior 6. Marlon 37. Raylan 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues 29. Vinicius Peixoto 70. Wesley Dias	6. Cardona T. 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 13. Mauricio Junior 17. Nathan Fogaca 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Barros E.	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Jean Dias ⚽, Eliel (A),
17', Pierre 🟨,
39', Pedro H. 🟨,
42', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
44', Pepe 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
46', Vitinho ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
46', Eliel ↓, Kauan Cristtyan ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Mailton (Penalty Awarded),
63', Miritello J. B. 🟥,
65', Fuentes G. ↓, Mauricio Junior ↑,
65', Lucas Sasha ↓, Cardona T. ↑,
70', Pepe ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
84', Jean Dias ↓, Marcos Junior ↑,
84', Calebe Costa ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
87', Rodriguinho ↓, Ryan ↑,
89', Igor Inocencio ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cuiabá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cuiabá will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cuiabá: David Miguel (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Lucca Prior (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Joao Araujo (Inactive) Mateus Santos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Injury) Rodrigo (Injury) Ronald (Muscle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cuiabá won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47

Last Results with these Odds

Cuiabá - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.14%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Fortaleza - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.76%, but this team recently wins 7% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.26	Sport Recife - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Cuiabá - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
17.07.26	Juventude - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
12.07.26	São Bernardo - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
02.07.26	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLTW
- Fortaleza EC
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
02.08.26	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
28.07.26	Fortaleza - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
31.03.26	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
29.09.24	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	1:0
16.06.24	Cuiabá - Fortaleza	5:0
12.11.23	Cuiabá - Fortaleza	2:1
16.07.23	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:1
31.07.22	Cuiabá - Fortaleza	0:1
10.04.22	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:1

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