Match Info

GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Merkur Spiel-Arena (Düsseldorf)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 2
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Slovakia	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Fortuna Düsseldorf		Ulm 1846

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	4.2	Watch
	1.77	3.8	4.33
	1.78	3.75	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.98	4.43
	1.79	3.99	4.44	Watch
	1.8	3.75	4	Watch
	1.79	3.98	4.15	Watch
	1.78	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.69)	3.86 ↓ (3.94)	4.24 ↓ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Düsseldorf
53.1%

Draw
24.5%

Ulm 1846
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

24%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

23.3%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Düsseldorf has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Ulm 1846 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	28.6%	7.1%

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ulm 1846 Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Fortuna will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Ulm will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortuna: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 15. Oberdorf T. 5. Heyer M. 20. Siebert J. 12. Fridriksson V. 6. Haag G. 8. Johannesson I. 10. van Brederode M. 11. Kwarteng M. 7. Pejcinovic D. 24. Kownacki D.	39. Ortag C. (G) 4. Gaal T. 5. Reichert J. 32. Strompf P. 43. Rosch R. 23. Brandt M. 14. Dressel D. 16. Keller A. 30. Krattenmacher M. 21. Batista Meier O. 29. Telalovic S.
Substitutes
45. Affo K. 23. Appelkamp S. 3. Hoffmann A. 18. Niemiec J. 22. Schmidt D. 26. Schock F. (G) 9. Vermeij V. 25. Zimmermann M.	7. Allgeier B. 11. Chessa D. 33. Higl F. 38. Hyrylainen L. 27. Kolbe N. 10. Ludwig A. 9. Roser L. 18. Stoll L. 1. Thiede N. (G)
Coaches
Thioune D.	Worle T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Johannesson I. ⚽, Kwarteng M. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Keller A. ⚽, Krattenmacher M. (A),
15', 2 - 1, Kownacki D. ⚽, Kwarteng M. (A),
19', Rosch R. 🟨,
21', van Brederode M. 🟨,
27', Strompf P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fridriksson V. ↓, Zimmermann M. ↑,
52', 2 - 2, Batista Meier O. ⚽, Gaal T. (A),
60', 3 - 2, Kownacki D. (Pen),
64', Pejcinovic D. ↓, Schmidt D. ↑,
64', Kwarteng M. ↓, Appelkamp S. ↑,
74', Johannesson I. 🟨,
77', Oberdorf T. 🟨,
83', van Brederode M. ↓, Hoffmann A. ↑,
86', Krattenmacher M. ↓, Higl F. ↑,
86', Telalovic S. ↓, Roser L. ↑,
86', Reichert J. ↓, Allgeier B. ↑,
89', Haag G. 🟨,
90', Thioune D. 🟨,
90+1', Higl F. 🟨,
90+2', Kownacki D. ↓, Vermeij V. ↑,
90+4', Allgeier B. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Fortuna could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortuna have a series of home games.

In this match Fortuna is a favorite.

There will not play in Fortuna: Gavory N. (Muscle Injury) Iyoha E. (Muscle Injury) Jastrzembski D. (Shoulder Injury) Kwasigroch R. (Knee Injury) Mbamba N. (Muscle Injury) Sobottka M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ulm: Geyer T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortuna: Kwarteng M. (Illness)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Fortuna won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:2 (average 3.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
25.01.25	Karlsruher - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:3 ✺
17.01.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Darmstadt	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Bodø Glimt	3:2 ✺
06.01.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Feyenoord	0:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.12.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Magdeburg	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWLL
- Ulm 1846
German 2 Bundesliga
26.01.25	Ulm 1846 - Jahn Regensburg	5:1 ✺
18.01.25	Kaiserslautern - Ulm 1846	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Preußen Münster - Ulm 1846	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Ulm 1846 - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Hannover - Ulm 1846	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.08.24	Ulm 1846 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2
German DFB Pokal
30.10.18	Ulm 1846 - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:5

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