Match Info

National League North - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Mill Farm (Wesham)


	Fylde		Chorley

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	4
	1.7	3.9	4.05
	1.71	4.35	3.91	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4
	1.66	3.86	4.21
	1.73	4	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.54)	3.94 ↓ (4.34)	4 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fylde
54%

Draw
23.1%

Chorley
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

21.4%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

20.8%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fylde has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fylde's form might have worsened.

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fylde than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fylde, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chorley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fylde - Chorley Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fylde will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fylde (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 - Fylde (7.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fylde (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Ormerod D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fylde won 2.

Fylde is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chorley has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chorley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fylde is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Fylde will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fylde won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fylde won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Fylde
English National League North
20.12.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Fylde	1:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Solihull Moors - Fylde	2:3 penalties ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Fylde - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Curzon Ashton - Fylde	1:3 ✺
25.11.25	Fylde - Macclesfield Town	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWWW
- Chorley
English National League North
20.12.25	Chorley - Hereford	4:2 ✺
06.12.25	Worksop Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Chorley	3:1 ✺
25.11.25	Chorley - Spennymoor Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Chorley - Bedford Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
01.01.23	Chorley - Fylde	0:1
26.12.22	Fylde - Chorley	1:2
25.01.22	Chorley - Fylde	2:2
26.12.21	Fylde - Chorley	1:2
02.01.21	Fylde - Chorley	4:0
26.12.20	Chorley - Fylde	3:1
English National League
06.08.19	Fylde - Chorley	0:0

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