Match Info

National League North - Round 21

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Mill Farm (Wesham)


	Fylde		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	4.5
	1.55	4.45	4.65
	1.56	4.59	4.76
	1.57	4.7	4.59	Watch
	1.53	4.2	4.6
	1.57	4.54	4.71
	1.53	4.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.6)	4.45 ↑ (4.35)	4.65 ↑ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fylde
59.6%

Draw
20.7%

Merthyr Town
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

21.4%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

20.4%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fylde has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fylde than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Fylde - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', 1 - 0, Ormerod D. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Recently, Merthyr has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fylde is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Fylde will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Fylde
English National League North
29.11.25	Curzon Ashton - Fylde	1:3 ✺
25.11.25	Fylde - Macclesfield Town	5:1 ✺
22.11.25	Fylde - Buxton	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Spennymoor Town - Fylde	2:3 ✺
English National League North
08.11.25	Alfreton Town - Fylde	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWLWW
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Merthyr Town - Leamington	4:1 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:3 ✺
English National League North
11.11.25	Merthyr Town - South Shields	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWWLW

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