Match Info

National League - Round 41

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Mill Farm (Wesham)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN 1 UK
Usa	DAZN USA


	Fylde		York City

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.33	1.6
	4.2	3.9	1.6
	4.4	4.2	1.65
	4.41	4.41	1.63	Watch
	5.8	4	1.5
	4.69	4.05	1.61
	4.4	4.2	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↓ (6.13)	4.16 ↑ (4.07)	1.61 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fylde
20.2%

Draw
22.3%

York City
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.2%

22.9%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

22.4%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fylde has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fylde than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fylde that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for York City than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that York City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fylde - York City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Winterbottom B. (G) 14. Bardell M. 4. Davis H. 10. Haughton N. 15. Hugill W. 7. Jolley C. 20. Massey G. 18. McFayden L. 8. Mitchell E. 40. Riley J. 17. Whelan C. (C)	1. Male H. (G) 15. Armstrong M. 18. Batty D. 28. Fagan-Walcott M. 23. Felix J. 5. Howe C. (C) 8. Hunt A. 21. John C. 29. Luamba J. 11. Nathaniel-George A. 10. Pearce O.
Substitutes
19. Boatswain A. 33. Clark C. 3. Evans O. 23. Hosannah B. J. 6. Long A. 29. Ormerod D. 11. Ustabasi J.	20. Aguiar R. 19. Chadwick B. 3. Crookes A. 14. John-Lewis L. N. 17. Richardson L. 24. Stones J. 16. Watson R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Jolley C. 🟨,
39', Jolley C. ↓, Ustabasi J. ↑,
45+2', 0 - 1, Pearce O. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', Massey G. 🟨,
60', Massey G. ↓, Evans O. ↑,
60', Hugill W. ↓, Boatswain A. ↑,
68', Luamba J. ↓, Richardson L. ↑,
68', Batty D. ↓, Stones J. ↑,
70', Riley J. ↓, Ormerod D. ↑,
70', Bardell M. ↓, Hosannah B. J. ↑,
71', John C. ↓, Crookes A. ↑,
74', 0 - 2, Felix J. ⚽,
78', 0 - 3, Fagan-Walcott M. ⚽,
79', 1 - 3, Haughton N. ⚽,
84', Armstrong M. 🟨,
87', Nathaniel-George A. ↓, Chadwick B. ↑,
87', Armstrong M. ↓, Aguiar R. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fylde won 1.

Fylde is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

York is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

York could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match York is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Fylde won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:11 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Fylde won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:4 (average 0:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Fylde
English National League
01.04.25	Aldershot Town - Fylde	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Yeovil Town - Fylde	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Fylde - Forest Green Rovers	3:0 ✺
18.03.25	Fylde - Sutton United	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Ebbsfleet United - Fylde	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWLL
- York City
English National League
29.03.25	York City - Wealdstone	3:0 ✺
25.03.25	Rochdale - York City	0:4 ✺
22.03.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Yeovil Town - York City	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	York City - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
14.09.24	York City - Fylde	3:0
05.03.24	York City - Fylde	1:3
11.11.23	Fylde - York City	0:2
English National League North
02.05.22	York City - Fylde	2:1
01.03.22	Fylde - York City	0:2
16.02.21	York City - Fylde	1:3

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