Match Info

Date: 21 May 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadion GKS Górnik Łęczna (Leczna)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3


	Górnik Łęczna		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.05
	3.5	3.35	2.1
	3.45	3.4	2.06
	3.56	3.61	2.12
	3.3	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.42	3.58	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.93)	3.44 ↑ (3.1)	2.07 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Łęczna
27.4%

Draw
27.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

29.5%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

29.6%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Górnik Łęczna - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Łęczna: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 14).

Górnik Łęczna is Relegated to Division 1

Last 5 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 1.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Jagiellonia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Jagiellonia will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Górnik Łęczna: Gol J. (Red Card) Pajnowski K. (Injury)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Runje I. (Injury) Tiru B. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Górnik Łęczna: Spiaczka B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Diego Carioca (Injury) Gual M. (Injury) Pazdan M. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 6-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Górnik Łęczna won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.05.22	Górnik Zabrze - Górnik Łęczna	4:2 ✺
09.05.22	Górnik Łęczna - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
24.04.22	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Łęczna	2:1 ✺
20.04.22	Lech Poznań - Górnik Łęczna	3:0 ✺
16.04.22	Górnik Łęczna - Radomiak Radom	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLLW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.05.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
07.05.22	Wisła Kraków - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
30.04.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Śląsk Wrocław	1:1 ✺
23.04.22	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
16.04.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
04.12.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	1:2
Club Friendly
17.07.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	4:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.02.17	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	5:0
27.08.16	Górnik Łęczna - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2
17.04.16	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	2:0
12.03.16	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Łęczna	1:0
17.10.15	Górnik Łęczna - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:2

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