Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla (Zabrze)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Ukraine	Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Górnik Zabrze		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.5
	2.92	3.2	2.35
	3.09	3.36	2.38
	1.61	3.60	6.05	Watch
	3.22	3.36	2.26	Watch
	2.63	3.25	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.65)	3.34 ↓ (3.37)	2.9 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Zabrze
36.2%

Draw
29.6%

Legia Warsaw
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.8%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.7%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	50%	42.9%

Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Legia will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Górnik Zabrze (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Legia (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 20%). Legia (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lubik M. (G) 5. Szczesniak K. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 18. Ambros L. 8. Hellebrand P. 14. Kubicki J. 33. Khlan M. 23. Liseth S. 30. Sow O.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Reca A. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 44. Szymanski D. 22. Elitim J. 99. Weisshaupt N. 29. Rajovic M. 77. Krasniqi E.
Substitutes
25. Balabuch A. (G) 28. Donio B. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 79. Goh Young-Jun 81. Kmet M. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 16. Olkowski P. 55. Pingot M. 7. Zahovic L.	8. Augustyniak R. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 11. Chodyna K. 14. Colak A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Gasparik M.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Khlan M. ⚽, Sow O. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Sow O. ⚽,
38', Pankov R. 🟨,
43', Hellebrand P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Krasniqi E. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
46', Weisshaupt N. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
72', Kapustka B. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
72', Reca A. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
83', Khlan M. ↓, Kmet M. ↑,
83', 3 - 0, Sow O. ⚽,
90', 3 - 1, Bichakhchyan V. ⚽, Urbanski K. (A),
90+4', Liseth S. ↓, Zahovic L. ↑,
90+7', Sow O. ↓, Olkowski P. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 0.

Górnik Zabrze is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Legia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Legia has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Sacek M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Goncalves C. (Ankle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Podolski L. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 28:41. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Zabrze won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Górnik Zabrze - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.4%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.09.25	Cracovia - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Legia II - Górnik Zabrze	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Górnik Zabrze - Widzew Łódź	3:2 ✺
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWL
- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	1:2
28.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1
01.04.24	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	1:3
24.09.23	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
04.03.23	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	0:1
19.08.22	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	2:2
06.05.22	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	5:3

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