Match Info

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga - Round 19

Date: 24 June 2026, Wednesday

Location: David Petriashvili Stadium (Tbilisi)

Referee: Kunchulia B. (Geo)


	Gagra		Samgurali Tskhaltubo

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.25	2.05
	3.10	3.20	2.08	Watch
	3.14	3.40	2.16
	2.58	3.48	2.43	Watch
	3.00	3.10	2.10
	3.13	3.54	2.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.41)	3.33 ↓ (3.46)	2.16 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gagra
30.5%

Draw
27.4%

Samgurali Tskhaltubo
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

26.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gagra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gagra's form might have worsened.

Samgurali Tskhaltubo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samgurali Tskhaltubo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gagra than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gagra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samgurali Tskhaltubo than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samgurali Tskhaltubo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Gagra will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Samgurali will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gagra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vorobey O. (G) 40. Claudinei 14. Tchavtchanidze Z. 2. Augusto 4. Arsic V. 6. Tsintsadze M. 25. Wanderson 7. Borges P. 21. Peikrishvili A. 11. Zoidze S. 23. Andreychuk A.	1. Kutaladze L. (G) 13. Gegetchkori L. 39. Ryan 25. Shatirishvili M. 27. Shergelashvili L. 5. Janjgava I. 20. Vinicius Vianna 11. Wellissol 15. Carlos J. 17. Tsetskhladze N. 28. Claudio Cebolinha
Substitutes
29. Adeyeye R. 3. Chochia O. 20. Darsania G. 35. Dmitrievich A. (G) 13. Gobejishvili L. 33. Gurchiani L. 19. Katsiashvili I. 17. Pipia G. 8. Skrypnyk I.	6. Aptsiauri O. 8. Berelidze T. 3. Jarjue Kabia A. 33. Jefinho 2. Kvaratskhelia L. 29. Manjgaladze N. 9. Papava L. 4. Patarkatsishvili O. 21. Siukaev A. (G)
Coaches
Ljubenovic Z.	Oniani G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Tsintsadze M. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Shergelashvili L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Peikrishvili A. 🟨,
67', Tsetskhladze N. ↓, Kvaratskhelia L. ↑,
69', Peikrishvili A. ↓, Skrypnyk I. ↑,
75', Claudio Cebolinha ↓, Papava L. ↑,
75', Wellissol ↓, Aptsiauri O. ↑,
79', Aptsiauri O. 🟨,
86', Borges P. ↓, Gurchiani L. ↑,
86', Andreychuk A. ↓, Katsiashvili I. ↑,
87', Tchavtchanidze Z. 🟨,
90', Tchavtchanidze Z. ↓, Chochia O. ↑,
90', Carlos J. ↓, Jefinho ↑,
90+4', Claudinei 🟨,
90+4', Augusto 🟨,
90+4', Shatirishvili M. 🟨,
90+4', Vinicius Vianna 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gagra won 2.

Gagra is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samgurali has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gagra won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:31. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Gagra won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.8:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Samgurali	27	9	5	13	38:52	-14	32
8	Gagra	27	6	11	10	25:37	-12	29

Last Results with these Odds

Samgurali Tskhaltubo - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 35.24%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gagra FC
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
18.06.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Gagra	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Gagra - Dinamo Tbilisi	2:1 ✺
28.05.26	Torpedo Kutaisi - Gagra	1:2 ✺
24.05.26	Gagra - Dila Gori	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Iberia 1999 - Gagra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.7 TWWWL
- Samgurali Tskhaltubo
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
18.06.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	5:3 ✺
13.06.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Torpedo Kutaisi	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Dila Gori - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	2:3 ✺
25.05.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Iberia 1999	3:2 ✺
21.05.26	Rustavi - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga
02.05.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	2:0
02.03.26	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	0:1
02.11.25	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	1:1
24.08.25	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	2:0
07.05.25	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	0:2
16.03.25	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	0:2
10.11.24	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	4:2

Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide