Match Info

I Lyga - Round 18

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Garliava		Neptūnas

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.25	2.30
	3.45	3.3	1.92
	3.53	3.34	1.96
	3.3	3.34	2.04	Watch
	3.35	3.35	1.8
	3.57	3.68	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.75)	3.38 ↓ (3.48)	1.99 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Garliava
27.5%

Draw
26.9%

Neptūnas
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

26.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

25.2%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Garliava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Garliava's form might have worsened.

Neptūnas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Garliava than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Garliava - Neptūnas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Garliava won 2.

Recent form of Garliava has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Neptūnas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Neptūnas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Garliava won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Garliava won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44
10	Garliava	25	8	4	13	31:28	3	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Garliava
Lithuanian Division 2
25.07.26	Jonava - Garliava	1:0 ✺
26.06.26	Garliava - Minija Kretinga	0:1 ✺
19.06.26	Garliava - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
13.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Garliava	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Garliava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
25.07.26	Neptūnas - FA Šiauliai B	2:1 ✺
20.07.26	Transinvest 2 - Neptūnas	2:2 ✺
27.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
18.06.26	Neptūnas - Kauno Žalgiris 2	2:1 ✺
10.06.26	Neptūnas - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
17.03.26	Neptūnas - Garliava	0:3
14.09.24	Garliava - Neptūnas	0:2
26.04.24	Neptūnas - Garliava	1:0
25.08.23	Garliava - Neptūnas	0:1
07.04.23	Neptūnas - Garliava	1:2
10.09.22	Garliava - Neptūnas	2:3
13.05.22	Neptūnas - Garliava	2:0

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