Match Info

I Lyga - Round 17

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday


	Jonava		Garliava

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.25	2.55
	2.73	3.12	2.43
	2.64	3.20	2.49	Watch
	2.55	3.20	2.25
	2.72	3.52	2.33
	3.25	3.4	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (3.15)	3.28 ↓ (3.4)	2.33 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonava
33.5%

Draw
27.7%

Garliava
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

26.7%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

26.5%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Garliava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Garliava might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Garliava than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Garliava could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jonava - Garliava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 0, ⚽,
86', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 8).

Jonava has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Garliava's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jonava may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Garliava could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Jonava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Garliava	25	8	4	13	31:28	3	28
11	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
18.07.26	Minija Kretinga - Jonava	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Jonava	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Jonava	1:2 ✺
12.06.26	Jonava - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1 ✺
07.06.26	Jonava - Minija Kretinga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWTT
- FK Garliava
Lithuanian Division 2
26.06.26	Garliava - Minija Kretinga	0:1 ✺
19.06.26	Garliava - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
13.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Garliava	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Garliava	1:0 ✺
29.05.26	Garliava - FA Šiauliai B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
14.03.26	Garliava - Jonava	2:0
01.09.23	Jonava - Garliava	2:1
15.04.23	Garliava - Jonava	1:1

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