Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Genoa		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3.25
	2.30	3.30	3.10
	2.25	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.29	3.4	3.42
	2.26	3.34	3.28	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.35
	2.34	3.4	3.4
	2.28	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.83)	3.34 ↓ (3.44)	3.29 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
42.2%

Draw
28.7%

Frosinone
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.6%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

29.6%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Genoa's form might have worsened.

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Frosinone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Genoa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.6%	9.5%	42.9%

Genoa - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Genoa will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). Frosinone will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 26.2% – 69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +0.25 - Frosinone (1.91) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bijlow J. (G) 27. Marcandalli A. 5. Ostigard L. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 3. Ehizibue K. 32. Frendrup M. 8. Baldanzi T. 97. Sow D. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 29. Colombo L. 18. Osmajic M.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 20. Oyono A. 3. Calvani G. 2. Cittadini G. 79. Bracaglia G. (C) 73. Masini P. 10. Schmid R. 14. Calo G. 7. Ghedjemis F. 9. Raimondo A. 17. Kvernadze G.
Substitutes
4. Amorim 16. Drameh C. 92. El Shaarawy S. 10. Junior Messias 11. Meichtry F. 2. Mitaj M. 34. Otoa S. 31. Puczka D. 20. Sabelli S. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 99. Stolz F. (G) 25. Traore H. J. 9. Vitinha 71. Wiafe S.	25. Akpoguma K. 5. Amey W. 11. Birligea D. 89. Bobcek T. 16. Cichella M. 91. Desplanches S. (G) 34. El Azzouzi A. 74. Fayed O. 40. Fini S. 70. Hasa L. 30. Monterisi I. 12. Pisseri M. (G) 90. Tchato E. 71. Terzic A. 24. Zerbin A.
Coaches
De Rossi D.	Alvini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Kvernadze G. ⚽, Schmid R. (A),
16', Cittadini G. 🟨,
45+1', Colombo L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Baldanzi T. ↓, Junior Messias ↑,
46', Cittadini G. ↓, Monterisi I. ↑,
49', Ehizibue K. 🟨,
50', 1 - 1, Vasquez J. ⚽, Sow D. (A),
60', Ehizibue K. ↓, El Shaarawy S. ↑,
62', Bracaglia G. 🟨,
67', Vasquez J. 🟨,
70', Colombo L. ↓, Vitinha ↑,
71', Schmid R. ↓, Hasa L. ↑,
73', Ghedjemis F. ↓, Fini S. ↑,
73', Raimondo A. ↓, Bobcek T. ↑,
79', Sow D. ↓, Amorim ↑,
80', Ellertsson M. E. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
87', Vasquez J. 🟨,
87', Kvernadze G. ↓, Zerbin A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 1.

Recent form of Genoa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Frosinone has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Genoa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Genoa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Genoa: Havel E. (Ankle Injury) Venturino L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Frosinone: 0.23% Genoa: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	9:7	2	10
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	5:11	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
04.09.26	Genoa - Como	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Lazio - Genoa	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Genoa - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.26	Genoa - Ascoli	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.26	Bournemouth - Genoa	10:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Frosinone - Venezia	3:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.09.26	Sassuolo - Frosinone	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
29.08.26	Fiorentina - Frosinone	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Frosinone - Juventus	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.26	Frosinone - Juve Stabia	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.03.24	Genoa - Frosinone	1:1
26.11.23	Frosinone - Genoa	2:1
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Frosinone - Genoa	3:2
18.12.22	Genoa - Frosinone	1:0
Italian Serie A
03.03.19	Genoa - Frosinone	0:0
30.09.18	Frosinone - Genoa	1:2
03.04.16	Genoa - Frosinone	4:0

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