Match Info

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League A - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, SporTV 2, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	ARD, Das Erste
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Csport Caribbean, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, DAZN Switzerland, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+


	Italy		Germany

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.7
	2.6	3.1	2.6
	2.75	3.2	2.8
	2.74	3.25	2.78
	2.78	3.17	2.78	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.62
	2.9	3.2	2.68	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.83)	3.17 ↓ (3.3)	2.72 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Nations League with fuboTV (for US customers)

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Current Win Probability

Italy
34.9%

Draw
30.1%

Germany
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Germany has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62%	26.6%	11.4%

Italy - Germany Predictions

Users Predictions: 79 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 49 - 62%). Germany will win (votes: 9 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 26.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 51.3% – 72.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Donnarumma G. (C) PSG 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 21. Bastoni A. Inter 5. Calafiori R. Arsenal 7. Politano M. Napoli 18. Barella N. Inter 14. Rovella N. Lazio 8. Tonali S. Newcastle Utd 19. Udogie D. Tottenham 9. Kean M. Fiorentina 10. Raspadori G. Napoli	1. Baumann O. (G) Hoffenheim 6. Kimmich J. (C) Bayern Munich 4. Tah J. Bayer Leverkusen 2. Rudiger A. Real Madrid 22. Raum D. RB Leipzig 5. Gross P. Dortmund 8. Goretzka L. Bayern Munich 19. Sane L. Bayern Munich 10. Musiala J. Bayern Munich 11. Amiri N. Mainz 7. Burkardt J. Mainz
Substitutes
2. Bellanova R. Atalanta 4. Buongiorno A. Napoli 23. Casadei C. Torino 16. Frattesi D. Inter 3. Gatti F. Juventus 15. Lucca L. Udinese 11. Maldini D. Atalanta 12. Meret A. (G) Napoli 6. Ricci S. Torino 17. Ruggeri M. Atalanta 13. Vicario G. (G) Tottenham 20. Zaccagni M. Lazio	20. Adeyemi K. Dortmund 23. Andrich R. Bayer Leverkusen 17. Bisseck Y. Inter 9. Kleindienst T. B. Monchengladbach 3. Koch R. Eintracht Frankfurt 14. Leweling J. VfB Stuttgart 18. Mittelstadt M. VfB Stuttgart 12. Nubel A. (G) VfB Stuttgart 21. Ortega S. (G) Manchester City 15. Schlotterbeck N. Dortmund 16. Stiller A. VfB Stuttgart 13. Undav D. VfB Stuttgart
Coaches
Spalletti L.	Nagelsmann J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Tonali S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Burkardt J. ↓, Kleindienst T. ↑,
46', Raum D. ↓, Schlotterbeck N. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Kleindienst T. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
52', Rovella N. 🟨,
55', Amiri N. 🟨,
64', Politano M. ↓, Bellanova R. ↑,
64', Rovella N. ↓, Ricci S. ↑,
66', Amiri N. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
71', Raspadori G. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
74', Maldini D. 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Goretzka L. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
82', Sane L. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
83', Kean M. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
83', Barella N. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
90', Gross P. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Italy won 0.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Italy won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:14 (average 1.1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy
UEFA Nations League
17.11.24	Italy - France	1:3 ✺
14.11.24	Belgium - Italy	0:1 ✺
14.10.24	Italy - Israel	4:1 ✺
10.10.24	Italy - Belgium	2:2 ✺
09.09.24	Israel - Italy	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWTW
- Germany
UEFA Nations League
19.11.24	Hungary - Germany	1:1 ✺
16.11.24	Germany - Bosnia and Herzegovina	7:0 ✺
14.10.24	Germany - Netherlands	1:0 ✺
11.10.24	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Germany	1:2 ✺
10.09.24	Netherlands - Germany	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
14.06.22	Germany - Italy	5:2
04.06.22	Italy - Germany	1:1
Friendly
15.11.16	Italy - Germany	0:0
UEFA Euro
02.07.16	Germany - Italy	2:1 penalties
Friendly
29.03.16	Germany - Italy	4:1
15.11.13	Italy - Germany	1:1
UEFA Euro
28.06.12	Germany - Italy	1:2

Italy - Germany: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide