Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League A - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	A Spor, DAZN 2, DAZN
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	RTL TVI, VTM, VTM GO
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, TLN, VIVA
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1, V Sport Premium
France	L'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot, Molotov TV, New World TV
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Alpha TV, Nova Sports 3
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV 2, SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Turkey	A Haber, A Spor, Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Italy		Belgium

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.60	3.20
	2.10	3.40	3.10
	2.10	3.55	3.20
	2.17	3.58	3.50
	2.21	3.7	3.24	Watch
	2.12	3.50	3.40
	2.08	3.69	3.45	Watch
	2.16	3.50	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.31)	3.57 ↑ (3.53)	3.28 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
44.5%

Draw
26.6%

Belgium
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

26.9%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Belgium has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59%	20.5%	20.5%

Italy - Belgium Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 23 - 59%). Belgium will win (votes: 8 - 20.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 43.6% – 74.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Belgium (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 4.5 - under (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Donnarumma G. (C) Manchester City 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 23. Mancini G. AS Roma 6. Coppola D. Paris FC 5. Calafiori R. Arsenal 18. Barella N. Inter 4. Romano A. Cagliari 8. Tonali S. Tottenham 9. Kean M. Como 7. Esposito F. Inter 21. Cambiaghi N. Bologna	1. Lammens S. (G) Manchester United 21. Castagne T. Fulham 15. Ngoy N. Lille 4. Mechele B. Club Brugge 5. De Cuyper M. Brighton 8. Tielemans Y. (C) Manchester United 23. Raskin N. Rangers 19. Moreira D. AC Milan 7. De Bruyne K. Napoli 10. Godts M. PSG 17. De Ketelaere C. Atalanta
Substitutes
3. Ahanor H. Crystal Palace 12. Carnesecchi M. (G) Atalanta 15. Doumbia I. Sporting CP 16. Frattesi D. Lazio 2. Kayode M. Brentford 20. Maldini D. Cagliari 13. Mandragora R. Torino 10. Raspadori G. Atalanta 19. Scalvini G. Atalanta 11. Scamacca G. Atalanta 14. Vicario G. (G) Juventus 17. Zoma M. A. Nurnberg	2. Debast Z. Sporting CP 13. De Busser J. (G) AZ Alkmaar 22. Fernandez-Pardo M. Newcastle Utd 16. Keita M. Parma 6. Lavia R. Chelsea 9. Lukaku R. Fenerbahce 14. Lukebakio D. Benfica 11. Openda L. Lyon 18. Seys J. Club Brugge 3. Theate A. Bologna 20. Vanaken H. Club Brugge 12. Vandevoordt M. (G) RB Leipzig
Coaches
Mancini R.	van Bommel M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, De Bruyne K. (A),
25', Raskin N. 🟨,
29', Moreira D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', De Bruyne K. ↓, Vanaken H. ↑,
58', Moreira D. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
63', Mancini G. 🟨,
65', Coppola D. ↓, Scalvini G. ↑,
65', Romano A. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
65', Esposito F. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Lukebakio D. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
74', Raskin N. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
80', Lavia R. 🟨,
80', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Zoma M. A. ↑,
80', Barella N. ↓, Doumbia I. ↑,
83', Godts M. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
83', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
89', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
90+1', Maldini D. 🟨,
90+4', Lukaku R. 🟨,
90+4', Donnarumma G. 🟨,

Preview

Italy is ranked FIFA: 12., and Belgium is ranked FIFA: 9..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 4.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Italy holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Italy has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 10:7 (averaging 1.7:1.2 goals per game).

Outrights of UEFA Nations League for now

Italy: 3.85% Belgium: 2.56%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy
Friendly
07.06.26	Greece - Italy	0:1 ✺
03.06.26	Luxembourg - Italy	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
31.03.26	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Italy	2:1 penalties ✺
26.03.26	Italy - Northern Ireland	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Italy - Norway	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLWL
- Belgium
FIFA World Cup
10.07.26	Spain - Belgium	2:1 ✺
06.07.26	USA - Belgium	1:4 ✺
01.07.26	Belgium - Senegal	3:2 ET ✺
26.06.26	New Zealand - Belgium	1:5 ✺
21.06.26	Belgium - Iran	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
14.11.24	Belgium - Italy	0:1
10.10.24	Italy - Belgium	2:2
10.10.21	Italy - Belgium	2:1
UEFA Euro
02.07.21	Belgium - Italy	1:2
13.06.16	Belgium - Italy	0:2
Friendly
13.11.15	Belgium - Italy	3:1

Italy - Belgium: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide