Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Ghiviborgo		Montevarchi

	1	X	2
	2.37	2.95	2.75
	2.75	2.99	2.42
	2.4	3.15	2.79
	2.70	2.95	2.35
	2.48	3.23	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.33)	3.05 ↓ (3.1)	2.62 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ghiviborgo
35.7%

Draw
29.7%

Montevarchi
34.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.7%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

27.6%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ghiviborgo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ghiviborgo than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
55', 0 - 1, ⚽,
65', 0 - 2, ⚽,
86', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 14th).

Ghiviborgo has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Montevarchi has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Montevarchi may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ghiviborgo has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:3 (averaging 0:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ghiviborgo against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 0:3 goals (averaging 0:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Montevarchi	9	4	1	4	13:12	1	13
17	Ghiviborgo	9	0	3	6	7:17	-10	3

Last Results with these Odds

Ghiviborgo - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 38.25%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GSD Ghiviborgo VDS
Italian Serie D - Group E
04.10.26	Ghiviborgo - Tau Altopascio	0:1 ✺
27.09.26	Prato - Ghiviborgo	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Ghiviborgo - Mezzolara	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Ghiviborgo	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Ghiviborgo - Terranuova Traiana	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
11.10.26	Montevarchi - Rondinella Marzocco	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Ternana - Montevarchi	4:1 ✺
27.09.26	Montevarchi - Progresso	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Siena - Montevarchi	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Seravezza Pozzi - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
14.12.25	Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi	0:2
19.01.25	Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi	0:1

Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi