Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)


	Ternana		Montevarchi

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.50	4.20
	1.65	3.40	4.30
	1.67	3.67	4.53	Watch
	1.70	3.94	4.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.69)	3.63 ↑ (3.62)	4.47 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
54.5%

Draw
25.1%

Montevarchi
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

25.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

25.7%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Ternana - Montevarchi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Pettinari S. ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Danese F. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Francalanci L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
90+11', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+11', 4 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 13th and 10th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

In this matchup, Ternana is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Ternana has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ternana	6	2	2	2	9:5	4	8
12	Montevarchi	6	2	1	3	9:11	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Montevarchi - the odds 4.55 are the expected chance of winning is 20.2%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
27.09.26	Scandicci - Ternana	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Ternana - Tau Altopascio	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Mezzolara - Ternana	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ternana - Follonica Gavorrano	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Prato - Ternana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLTL
- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
27.09.26	Montevarchi - Progresso	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Siena - Montevarchi	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Seravezza Pozzi - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Montevarchi - Tau Altopascio	4:1 ✺
06.09.26	Lucchese - Montevarchi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.07.22	Montevarchi - Ternana	0:4

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