Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL Premiership - Relegation Group

Date: 6 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Mourneview Park (Lurgan)

Referee: Clarke T. (Nir)


	Glenavon		Newry City

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.8	6.75
	1.36	5	7
	1.4	5.15	6.72
	1.41	4.94	6.76
	1.33	4.8	7
	1.38	4.85	6.76
	1.38	4.8	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.44)	4.91 ↑ (4.88)	6.83 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glenavon
67.5%

Draw
18.9%

Newry City
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

19.1%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

14.8%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glenavon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Glenavon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Glenavon - Newry City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Prendergast A. ↓, Hodgins G. ↑,
25', 1 - 0, Doona J. ⚽,
30', Carroll A. 🟨,
42', Salley A. 🟨,
45+1', McCaffrey F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
57', Haughey M. ↓, Teggart S. ↑,
57', Garrett R. ↓, Ward S. ↑,
57', Snoddy M. ↓, Doran J. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Salley A. ⚽,
67', Birney C. 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Hodgins G. ⚽,
78', 2 - 2, McKeown B. ⚽,
81', Birney C. ↓, Wallace D. ↑,
89', Ward S. 🟨,
90', 3 - 2, Teggart S. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Glenavon won 4.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match Glenavon is absolute favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Glenavon won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Glenavon won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
23.03.24	Glenavon - Loughgall	1:2 ✺
16.03.24	Larne - Glenavon	6:1 ✺
09.03.24	Glenavon - Dungannon Swifts	4:0 ✺
05.03.24	Glenavon - Glentoran	0:0 ✺
24.02.24	Crusaders - Glenavon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWTL
- Newry City
Northern Irish Premiership
23.03.24	Newry City - Crusaders	0:1 ✺
16.03.24	Linfield - Newry City	6:0 ✺
09.03.24	Carrick Rangers - Newry City	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Newry City - Coleraine	0:2 ✺
17.02.24	Glentoran - Newry City	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
26.12.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:4
24.11.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:3
19.08.23	Glenavon - Newry City	1:3
15.04.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:1
04.03.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:1
25.02.23	Glenavon - Newry City	0:2
30.08.22	Glenavon - Newry City	1:5

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