Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 25

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Mourneview Park (Lurgan)

Referee: Thompson L. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Glenavon		Glentoran

	1	X	2
	5.7	3.85	1.52
	5.41	4.05	1.53	Watch
	6.5	4	1.44
	6.51	3.75	1.54
	6.5	4	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.12 ↓ (7.85)	3.93 ↓ (4.43)	1.5 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glenavon
15%

Draw
23.4%

Glentoran
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

20.7%

67.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.3%

19.9%

70.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glenavon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Glentoran has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Glentoran might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glentoran than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Glentoran could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Glenavon - Glentoran Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carney J. (G) 3. Burns P. 28. Falls C. 23. Gilmore G. 11. Mallon S. 29. McGovern P. 6. McKeown B. (C) 2. McMullan J. 4. Murphy H. 31. Quinn N. 20. Wilson B.	1. Mills A. (G) 17. Burt L. 25. Gallagher B. 9. Hoban P. 30. Jenkins J. 18. Kamara M. 3. Kane M. (C) 20. Larmour D. 8. Palmer C. 27. Singleton J. 6. Thomson J.
Substitutes
10. Campbell P. 27. Carlin S. 5. Cartwright L. 21. Kee J. 15. McClelland K. 36. McGerrigan L. 22. Mountney J.	22. Amos D. 7. Connolly D. 44. Douglas J. 23. Francis Crellin W. (G) 16. McEleney S. 10. Stewart J. 35. Weatherup C.
Coaches
McLaughlin P.	Devine D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Quinn N. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gallagher B. ↓, Stewart J. ↑,
55', Kane M. 🟨,
59', 0 - 2, Palmer C. ⚽,
68', Burt L. ↓, Connolly D. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, McGovern P. ⚽,
77', Larmour D. ↓, Douglas J. ↑,
82', Kane M. ↓, McEleney S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 1.

Recent performances by Glenavon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Glentoran is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Glentoran may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Glentoran is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 20:38. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Glenavon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.3:1.8).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Glentoran: 2.48%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Glentoran	10	5	1	4	15:10	5	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Cup
13.01.26	Glenavon - Newington	4:2 ET ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
30.12.25	Glenavon - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Portadown - Glenavon	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Glenavon - Linfield	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Cliftonville - Glenavon	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLLWL
- Glentoran
Northern Irish Premiership
13.01.26	Glentoran - Larne	1:4 ✺
03.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Glentoran	0:7 ✺
30.12.25	Glentoran - Portadown	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Linfield - Glentoran	0:1 ✺
19.12.25	Glentoran - Coleraine	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
08.11.25	Glenavon - Glentoran	3:1
19.08.25	Glentoran - Glenavon	2:0
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Glenavon - Glentoran	1:2
Northern Irish Premiership
12.03.25	Glentoran - Glenavon	3:3
09.11.24	Glenavon - Glentoran	0:3
28.09.24	Glentoran - Glenavon	0:0
05.03.24	Glenavon - Glentoran	0:0

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