Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 17

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Clarke T. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Larne		Glenavon

	1	X	2
	1.21	5.5	11.5
	1.23	5.93	11.62
	1.30	5.30	8.81	Watch
	1.22	5.15	11.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.3)	5.47 ↑ (5.3)	10.91 ↑ (8.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
74.6%

Draw
16.9%

Glenavon
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.8%

17.6%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.2%

16.8%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Glenavon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Larne - Glenavon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Larne will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 26. Bent D. 23. Cosgrove T. 4. Donnelly A. 11. Graham S. 7. McKendry C. 21. Millar L. 10. O'Connor T. 9. O'Neill P. 8. Randall M. 3. Ridley M.	13. Byrne M. (G) 3. Burns P. 10. Campbell P. 5. Cartwright L. 8. Malone J. 29. McGovern P. 2. McMullan J. 4. Murphy H. 22. O'Connor M. 14. O'Kane O. 26. Smith C.
Substitutes
32. Austin C. 46. Graham D. (G) 30. Lusty M. 14. Magee B. 22. McEneff J. 47. Simpson J. 36. Wallace L.	25. Bosakani B. 37. Gough H. 40. Hamill S. (G) 9. McDaid D. 6. McKeown B. 44. McShane C. 31. Quinn N.
Coaches
Haveron G.	O'Connor M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Graham S. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
31', 0 - 1, Cartwright L. ⚽,
43', Simpson J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, O'Neill P. ⚽,
60', Malone J. 🟨,
71', O'Connor T. ↓, Lusty M. ↑,
71', O'Neill P. ↓, McEneff J. ↑,
71', Millar L. ↓, Magee B. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, McKendry C. ⚽,
82', 🟨,
90+1', McKendry C. ↓, Wallace L. ↑,
90+5', Randall M. 🟥,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 3.

Larne is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Glenavon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Glenavon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Larne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Larne won 16 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 47:13. (average 2.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Larne won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:8. (average 2.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
07.11.25	Larne - Portadown	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Ballymena United - Larne	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Larne - Bangor	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Cliftonville - Larne	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTWL
- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
15.11.25	Crusaders - Glenavon	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Glenavon - Glentoran	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Coleraine - Glenavon	5:1 ✺
25.10.25	Dungannon Swifts - Glenavon	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
13.09.25	Larne - Glenavon	1:0
22.03.25	Glenavon - Larne	0:1
18.02.25	Larne - Glenavon	1:1
17.09.24	Glenavon - Larne	0:0
16.03.24	Larne - Glenavon	6:1
Northern Irish Cup
03.02.24	Larne - Glenavon	5:0
Northern Irish Premiership
08.12.23	Larne - Glenavon	4:1

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