Match Info

Date: 13 September 2022, Tuesday


	Gloucester City		AFC Telford United

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.15
	2.7	3.3	2.28
	2.85	3.4	2.19
	3.06	3.44	2.17
	2.25	3.2	2.88
	3.1	3.4	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (1.77)	3.32 ↓ (3.5)	2.3 ↓ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester City
32.6%

Draw
27.5%

AFC Telford United
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

26.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

25.9%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gloucester City's form might have worsened.

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AFC Telford United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (+20.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gloucester City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-18.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AFC Telford United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

Gloucester City - AFC Telford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Gloucester will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Telford will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Telford: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 14 and 21 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 1.

Recent matches Gloucester is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Telford is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester City
English National League North
03.09.22	Gloucester City - Curzon Ashton	0:3 ✺
29.08.22	Hereford - Gloucester City	1:3 ✺
27.08.22	Gloucester City - Brackley Town	0:1 ✺
20.08.22	Blyth Spartans - Gloucester City	2:0 ✺
16.08.22	Gloucester City - Peterborough Sports	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLLW
- AFC Telford United
English National League North
03.09.22	Fylde - AFC Telford United	3:1 ✺
29.08.22	AFC Telford United - Buxton	1:1 ✺
27.08.22	Southport - AFC Telford United	0:0 ✺
20.08.22	AFC Telford United - King`s Lynn Town	0:4 ✺
16.08.22	Kettering Town - AFC Telford United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
02.04.22	AFC Telford United - Gloucester City	2:1
23.10.21	Gloucester City - AFC Telford United	2:2
10.11.20	Gloucester City - AFC Telford United	4:1
28.12.19	Gloucester City - AFC Telford United	0:1
03.09.19	AFC Telford United - Gloucester City	4:3
04.02.17	AFC Telford United - Gloucester City	0:2
13.09.16	Gloucester City - AFC Telford United	3:0

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