Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 12

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday


	Gosport Borough		Poole Town

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.40	2.25
	2.65	3.35	2.22
	2.72	3.4	2.32
	2.78	3.57	2.33	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.25
	2.73	3.32	2.27
	2.65	3.35	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.68)	3.37 ↓ (3.68)	2.27 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gosport Borough
33.5%

Draw
26.7%

Poole Town
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

25.1%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

24.3%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gosport Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Poole Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gosport Borough than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poole Town than the current prediction. (+2%)

Gosport Borough - Poole Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, (Own goal),
45+2', 1 - 1, Goodship B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 1 - 2, Slade H. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Davis C. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 13th and 4th in the Promotion - Southern League Premier South Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gosport won 4.

In recent outings, Gosport has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Poole is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Gosport could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Gosport has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:32 (averaging 1.1:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gosport against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:16 goals (averaging 1.2:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Poole	10	7	0	3	17:12	5	21
13	Gosport	10	3	3	4	13:13	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Gosport Borough - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.43%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Poole Town - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.47%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gosport Borough
English Southern League South Division
30.09.26	Gosport Borough - Bracknell Town	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Basingstoke Town - Gosport Borough	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gosport Borough - Taunton Town	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Sholing - Gosport Borough	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Gosport Borough - Malvern Town	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTWLW
- Poole Town
English Southern League South Division
03.10.26	Poole Town - Evesham United	3:1 ✺
29.09.26	Chertsey Town - Poole Town	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Havant & Waterlooville - Poole Town	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Plymouth Parkway - Poole Town	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Poole Town - Yate Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
21.03.26	Gosport Borough - Poole Town	1:0
01.11.25	Poole Town - Gosport Borough	0:1
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Gosport Borough - Poole Town	0:3
English Southern League South Division
08.02.25	Gosport Borough - Poole Town	1:0
02.11.24	Poole Town - Gosport Borough	1:3
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Poole Town - Gosport Borough	1:2 penalties
English Southern League South Division
06.03.24	Gosport Borough - Poole Town	1:2

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