Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet, Xsports
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grêmio Novorizontino		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.80	6.50	Watch
	1.50	3.80	6.00
	1.55	3.6	5.7	Watch
	1.61	3.87	6.68
	1.56	3.78	6.25
	1.54	3.75	6.5
	1.57	3.72	5.96	Watch
	1.57	3.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 (1.55)	3.75 ↓ (3.85)	6.15 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
60.1%

Draw
24.8%

América Mineiro
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

24.2%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

23.4%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

The ML Model estimate for América Mineiro aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Novorizontino (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 2. Madson 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 5. Sander 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 27. Diego Mathias 11. Robson (C)	91. Bruno Brigido (G) 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 26. Manoel 3. Sosa L. 15. Alex Silva 88. Gustavo Barreto 10. Yago Souza 25. Ostchega T. 20. Paulo Victor 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 9. Willian Bigode
Substitutes
9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 35. Hector Bianchi 50. Juninho 28. Marlon 17. Matheus Bianqui 66. Maykon Jesus 30. Nicolas Careca 16. Vinicius Paiva	29. Dalbert 5. Elizari F. 31. Fabio 8. Felipe Amaral 7. Guilherme Parede 1. Gustavo (G) 93. Jorge Jimenez 99. Marcelo Macola 14. Pineiro R. 4. Rafa Barcelos 19. William (G)
Coaches
Moreira E.	Umberto Louzer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Paulo Victor 🟨,
19', Madson 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Patrick ⚽, Diego Mathias (A),
33', Manoel 🟨,
39', Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,
46', Manoel ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
66', Yago Souza ↓, Pineiro R. ↑,
67', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
67', Diego Mathias ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
71', Patrick 🟨,
77', Willian Bigode ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Robson ⚽,
82', Robson ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
82', Romulo ↓, Carlao ↑,
84', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
86', Nicolas Careca 🟨,
89', Leo Naldi ↓, Marlon ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Carlao ⚽, Luis Oyama (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Novorizontino is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive) Ronald Barcellos (Inactive) Vinicius Paiva (Inactive)

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Emerson Santos (Injury) Gabriel Domingos (Injury) Segovia M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Arthur Barbosa (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
16.08.26	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Juventude	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
21.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Botafogo SP - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	América Mineiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	América Mineiro - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
25.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
03.11.25	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
12.07.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:1
16.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	1:1
27.04.24	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0

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