Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday


	Gran Peña		Polvorín

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.95	2.75
	2.5	3.15	2.6
	2.58	3.11	2.63	Watch
	2.49	3.18	2.54
	2.5	3.15	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.25)	3.11 ↑ (3.04)	2.62 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gran Peña
36.4%

Draw
29.1%

Polvorín
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

30%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

30.3%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gran Peña has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Polvorín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gran Peña than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polvorín than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Polvorín, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gran Peña - Polvorín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Avinu J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 1 - 2, ⚽,
53', 2 - 2, Avinu J. ⚽,
63', 🟥,
84', 3 - 2, Avinu J. ⚽,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 10 and 8).

Gran Peña is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Polvorín is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gran Peña will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Gran Peña won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Gran Peña won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gran Peña FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.03.25	RC Villalbes - Gran Peña	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Gran Peña - Sarriana	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Alondras - Gran Peña	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Gran Peña - Silva SD	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Estradense - Gran Peña	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLTLT
- Polvorín FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
16.03.25	Polvorín - Somozas	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Polvorín - Villalonga	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Valladares - Polvorín	3:3 ✺
16.02.25	Polvorín - Arosa	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Atlético Arteixo - Polvorín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
10.11.24	Polvorín - Gran Peña	2:0
27.04.24	Polvorín - Gran Peña	1:1
17.12.23	Gran Peña - Polvorín	1:0

Gran Peña - Polvorín: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide