Match Info

Date: 8 October 2021, Friday


	Gran Valencia		Deportivo La Guaira

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	1.9
	3.5	2.95	2.02
	3.32	2.81	2
	4	3	1.9
	4.75	3.2	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↓ (4.34)	3.05 ↑ (2.75)	1.93 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gran Valencia
23.7%

Draw
29.6%

Deportivo La Guaira
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

32.4%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.9%

25.1%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gran Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Deportivo La Guaira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gran Valencia than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gran Valencia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Guaira than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo La Guaira could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26%	8%	66%

Gran Valencia - Deportivo La Guaira Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Gran Valencia will win (votes: 13 - 26%). Deportivo La Guaira will win (votes: 33 - 66%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo La Guaira: 52.9% – 79.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Gran Valencia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportivo La Guaira is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Deportivo La Guaira could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Deportivo La Guaira will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gran Valencia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Gran Valencia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gran Valencia FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
01.10.21	Yaracuyanos - Gran Valencia	0:2 ✺
23.09.21	Academia Puerto Cabello - Gran Valencia	4:1 ✺
18.09.21	Gran Valencia - Aragua	0:1 ✺
10.09.21	Carabobo - Gran Valencia	1:0 ✺
04.09.21	Gran Valencia - Deportivo Lara	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLL
- Deportivo La Guaira
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.10.21	Carabobo - Deportivo La Guaira	1:2 ✺
26.09.21	Deportivo La Guaira - Yaracuyanos	1:0 ✺
18.09.21	Deportivo La Guaira - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
11.09.21	Aragua - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1 ✺
28.08.21	Deportivo Lara - Deportivo La Guaira	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
21.08.21	Deportivo La Guaira - Gran Valencia	3:1
03.07.21	Gran Valencia - Deportivo La Guaira	0:0
15.05.21	Deportivo La Guaira - Gran Valencia	0:0
Copa Venezuela
18.09.19	Deportivo La Guaira - Gran Valencia	6:1
04.09.19	Gran Valencia - Deportivo La Guaira	0:3

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