Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Guaraní Asuncion		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.10	3.00	3.10
	1.95	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.35	4.18
	2.23	3.18	3.34	Watch
	1.93	3.3	4
	1.96	3.28	3.92	Watch
	1.92	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.4)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	3.7 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
46.2%

Draw
28.8%

Sportivo Ameliano
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

29.6%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.6%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guaraní Asuncion's performance.

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sportivo Ameliano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guaraní Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sportivo Ameliano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Sportivo Ameliano will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Martinez M. (G) 14. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 2. Segovia I. 15. Servin T. 4. Mendez A. 5. Tanda P. 26. Fernandez D. 29. Llano J. 8. Lopez M. 33. Allende L. 11. Garcia J. (C)	35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 15. Rodriguez W. 24. Ayala L. 8. Moreira E. 10. Cabral R. 14. Paez E. 9. Ocampos C.
Substitutes
10. Anasco M. 21. Arrua C. 3. Barbotte A. 17. Cespedes V. 38. Coronel P. 24. Espinola J. 25. Gomez G. 34. Maldonado M. 13. Martinez A. (G) 36. Martinez L. 9. Recalde J. 6. Riveros P.	1. Balbuena J. (G) 5. Benitez H. 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 32. Camargo G. M. 40. Contrera A. 20. Larralde V. 28. Leon M. 18. Ortiz L. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.
Coaches
Galeano A.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Ocampos C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Rodriguez W. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Lopez M. ⚽, Llano J. (A),
63', Rodriguez W. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
63', Moreira E. ↓, Larralde V. ↑,
63', Paez E. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
69', Falabella A. 🟨,
69', Tanda P. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
70', Garcia J. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
76', Mendez A. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
76', Ocampos C. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
77', Llano J. ↓, Gomez G. ↑,
80', Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. ↓, Barbotte A. ↑,
80', Ayala L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
90+2', Cespedes V. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Guaraní may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guaraní might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guaraní won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Guaraní Asuncion - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.22%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.19%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.08.26	2 de Mayo - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	2:3 ✺
Copa Paraguay
12.08.26	Sportivo Iteño - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TLLTW
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
22.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
11.08.26	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
08.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - 2 de Mayo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0
15.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0
12.10.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1
31.07.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	4:1
18.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:3
10.03.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	2:0
12.10.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1

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