Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Ricardo Gregor (Asunción)

Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Recoleta		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.9	2.3	Watch
	2.92	2.98	2.4	Watch
	3.34	2.96	2.43
	3.01	3.12	2.43	Watch
	3	2.88	2.45
	3.19	2.98	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.88)	2.97 ↑ (2.9)	2.4 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Recoleta
30.3%

Draw
31.2%

Sportivo Ameliano
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

30.6%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

30.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The chances for Sportivo Ameliano have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Recoleta (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Recoleta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ferreira N. (G) 14. Figueredo C. 5. Marotta N. 32. Monzon L. 18. Rios P. 17. Baez W. (C) 38. Franco A. 6. Espinola J. 21. Garay C. 33. Gonzalez A. 11. Parzajuk K.	23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 30. Cabral R. 6. Benitez J. 20. Larralde V. 10. Vera E. 38. Favero C. 18. Avalos A.
Substitutes
3. Cardozo L. 7. Dominguez R. 36. Ferreira B. 8. Galeano F. 39. Guggiari G. 19. Lopez H. 1. Marsengo A. (G) 15. Medina B. 9. Ortiz R. 22. Pacher F. 26. Piris I. 16. Vera C.	24. Ayala L. 5. Benitez H. 34. Benitez M. 40. Contrera A. 36. Leon M. 8. Moreira E. 9. Ocampos C. 15. Rodriguez W. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 28. Sanguina J. 32. Servian A. 7. Vera F.
Coaches
Gonzalez J.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Paredes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Paredes A. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
54', Figueredo C. 🟨,
58', Gonzalez A. ↓, Ferreira B. ↑,
59', Garay C. ↓, Pacher F. ↑,
59', Avalos A. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
60', Larralde V. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
62', Franco A. 🟨,
65', 0 - 1, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
70', Monzon L. 🟨,
70', Portillo F. ↓, Servian A. ↑,
70', Rios P. ↓, Piris I. ↑,
79', Servian A. 🟨,
83', Parzajuk K. ↓, Medina B. ↑,
83', Figueredo C. ↓, Ortiz R. ↑,
86', Cabral R. ↓, Leon M. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Baez W. ⚽, Ferreira B. (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 7).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sportivo Ameliano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Recoleta won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recoleta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18
11	Recoleta	13	2	2	9	14:26	-12	8

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Recoleta - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 30.81%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Recoleta
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Nacional Asuncion	2:2 ✺
20.02.26	2 de Mayo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:1 ✺
13.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTWL
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
19.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
06.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
29.09.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	1:4
21.07.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano	3:1
10.05.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Deportivo Recoleta	1:2
28.02.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1

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