Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 6

Date: 20 May 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Goncalves A. (Bra)


	Guarani		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.35	Watch
	3.1	2.95	2.3
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.44	2.96	2.44
	3.44	2.96	2.44
	3.2	3	2.3
	3.29	2.96	2.37
	3.05	3.05	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	3.01 ↑ (3)	2.36 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
29.2%

Draw
31.2%

América Mineiro
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

31%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

30.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Guarani - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Vladimir (G) 13. Diogo Mateus 23. Douglas Bacelar 12. Lucas Adell 17. Jefferson 14. Camacho 18. Matheus Bueno 11. Chay 19. Joao Victor 7. Luccas Paraizo 20. Reinaldo	31. Dalberson (G) 36. Mateus Henrique 33. Eder 45. Ricardo Silva 6. Marlon 16. Ale 8. Juninho (C) 15. Moises 44. Adyson 78. Renato Marques 28. Fabinho
Substitutes
5. Anderson Leite 31. Douglas Borges (G) 33. Gustavo Franca 6. Kayque 3. Leo Santos 32. Lima 21. Lucas Araujo 8. Marlon Douglas 15. Pedro Henrique 26. Rafael Freitas 4. Rayan . Renyer	9. Brenner 20. Daniel Borges 1. Elias (G) 19. Felipe Amaral 11. Felipe Azevedo 18. Julio 10. Martin Benitez 30. Nicolas 4. Pedro Barcelos 75. Rodriguinho 7. Vinicius 29. Vitor Jacare
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Cauan Almeida

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Luccas Paraizo ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Fabinho ⚽, Renato Marques (A),
43', Camacho 🟨,
45+3', Chay 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Chay ↓, Gustavo Franca ↑,
52', Diogo Mateus 🟨,
59', Fabinho ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
64', Lucas Adell ↓, Leo Santos ↑,
64', Reinaldo ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
64', Luccas Paraizo ↓, Rafael Freitas ↑,
71', Juninho ↓, Martin Benitez ↑,
71', Adyson ↓, Vitor Jacare ↑,
72', Camacho ↓, Anderson Leite ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Moises (Pen),
83', Jefferson 🟨,
85', Matheus Bueno 🟨,
88', Ale ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
88', Renato Marques ↓, Brenner ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 7).

Guarani is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

América MG is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

América MG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

América MG will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Brenner (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
14.05.24	Coritiba - Guarani	1:0 ✺
11.05.24	Guarani - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
06.05.24	Santos - Guarani	4:1 ✺
26.04.24	Guarani - Chapecoense	0:1 ✺
22.04.24	Vila Nova - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
15.05.24	América Mineiro - Mirassol	0:0 ✺
08.05.24	América Mineiro - Vila Nova	3:1 ✺
04.05.24	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
27.04.24	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
19.04.24	Botafogo SP - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWTWT

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