Match Info

Paulista - Round 7

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Nunes G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Guarani		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.15	3	3.55
	2.19	3.02	3.81
	2.14	3.07	3.7	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.4
	2.1	2.88	3.62
	2.12	3.1	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.99)	3 ↓ (3.07)	3.63 ↓ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
43.4%

Draw
31%

Botafogo SP
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

30.1%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.7%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guarani, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Guarani - Botafogo SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mateus Claus (G) 3. Raphael 13. Mauricio Antonio 4. Jonathan Costa 6. Emerson Barbosa 5. Willian Farias (C) 8. Nathan Melo 7. Guilherme Parede 10. Isaque 11. Mirandinha 9. Lucca	1. Victor Souza (G) 6. Gabriel Inocencio 3. Ericson (C) 14. Carlao 21. Patrick Brey 8. Everton Morelli 5. Maciel L. 11. Jefferson Nem 10. Rafael Gava 23. Kelvin 7. Hygor
Substitutes
2. Cicinho 17. Dentinho 20. Diego Torres 22. Fabricio Dias 25. Fred Conte (G) 18. Guilherme Cachoeira 23. Hebert 21. Kaua Jesus 19. Kewen 15. Povoa M. 14. Ralf 16. Renan Castro	15. Guilherme Mariano 19. Guilherme Queiroz 30. Henrique Teles 2. Jonathan 12. Jordan (G) 9. Leo Gamalho 17. Marcio Maranhao 20. Marquinho 16. Matheus Sales 29. Thalles 27. Yuri Felipe
Coaches
Bernay V.	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Carlao 🟨,
22', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
29', Kelvin 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Hygor ⚽, Rafael Gava (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Guilherme Parede ↓, Hebert ↑,
46', Raphael ↓, Cicinho ↑,
51', Gabriel Inocencio 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Kelvin ⚽, Rafael Gava (A),
60', Isaque 🟨,
61', Isaque ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
61', Lucca ↓, Kewen ↑,
73', Kelvin ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
73', Rafael Gava ↓, Matheus Sales ↑,
73', Hygor ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
77', Diego Torres 🟨,
78', Marcio Maranhao 🟨,
83', Willian Farias ↓, Guilherme Cachoeira ↑,
85', Gabriel Inocencio ↓, Jonathan ↑,
88', Matheus Sales 🟨,
90+1', Cicinho 🟨,
90+2', Jonathan 🟨,
90+2', Everton Morelli ↓, Guilherme Mariano ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 2.

Guarani is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Botafogo SP's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guarani will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarani won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Portuguesa - Guarani	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Velo Clube - Guarani	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
13.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WWWTL
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.26	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo SP	5:0 ✺
15.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.01.25	Guarani - Botafogo SP	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
09.10.24	Botafogo SP - Guarani	3:2
11.05.24	Guarani - Botafogo SP	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.24	Botafogo SP - Guarani	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
27.10.23	Guarani - Botafogo SP	0:1
03.07.23	Botafogo SP - Guarani	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.01.23	Botafogo SP - Guarani	3:2

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