Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday


	Guarnizo		Barquereño

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.65	5.15
	1.77	3.3	4.34
	1.76	3.41	4.44	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5
	1.62	3.86	5.21
	1.57	3.6	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.73)	3.55 (3.55)	4.91 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarnizo
55.6%

Draw
25.7%

Barquereño
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

25.7%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

24.3%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarnizo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Barquereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarnizo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barquereño than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Guarnizo - Barquereño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 2 - 1, ⚽,
71', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15).

Guarnizo is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barquereño's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Barquereño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Guarnizo is considered a favorite.

We predict that Guarnizo will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Guarnizo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:1. (average 3.3:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarnizo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guarnizo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
06.12.25	Guarnizo - Castro	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Cayón - Guarnizo	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Guarnizo - Montañas del Pas	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Guarnizo - Vimenor	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Tropezón - Guarnizo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28 WTWWW
- CD Barquereño
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
14.12.25	Barquereño - Colindres	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Selaya - Barquereño	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Barquereño - Laredo	1:7 ✺
15.11.25	Bezana - Barquereño	1:3 ✺
09.11.25	Barquereño - Torina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
21.12.24	Guarnizo - Barquereño	3:0
13.06.21	Barquereño - Guarnizo	1:4
09.05.21	Guarnizo - Barquereño	3:0

Guarnizo - Barquereño: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide