Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 13

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday


	Guarnizo		Castro

	1	X	2
	2.62	3	2.52
	2.77	2.92	2.62
	1.00	12.83	25.00	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.52
	2.75	2.83	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.51)	4.91 ↑ (3.19)	7.05 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarnizo
55.1%

Draw
26.5%

Castro
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

28.4%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

29.3%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarnizo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guarnizo's performance.

Castro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarnizo than the current prediction. (-20.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guarnizo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro than the current prediction. (+18.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guarnizo - Castro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, ⚽,
79', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarnizo won 1.

Guarnizo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castro has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Guarnizo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarnizo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guarnizo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
23.11.25	Cayón - Guarnizo	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Guarnizo - Montañas del Pas	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Guarnizo - Vimenor	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Tropezón - Guarnizo	0:3 ✺
12.10.25	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Guarnizo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 TWWWL
- Castro FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
23.11.25	Castro - Colindres	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Castro - Laredo	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Bezana - Castro	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Castro - Torina	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Barquereño - Castro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
29.09.24	Guarnizo - Castro	0:2
09.03.24	Guarnizo - Castro	0:0
22.10.23	Castro - Guarnizo	3:2
26.02.23	Guarnizo - Castro	4:1
23.10.22	Castro - Guarnizo	0:0
26.02.22	Castro - Guarnizo	0:0
30.10.21	Guarnizo - Castro	0:0

Guarnizo - Castro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide