Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla (Zabrze)

Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 3


	Górnik Zabrze		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	6	Watch
				Watch
	1.5	4.05	5.9	Watch
	1.58	4.12	5.50	Watch
	1.56	4.22	5.74	Watch
	1.5	4.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.79)	4.14 ↑ (3.37)	5.83 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Zabrze
61.2%

Draw
22.7%

Arka Gdynia
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

26.5%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

25.5%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Górnik Zabrze's performance.

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arka Gdynia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Górnik Zabrze that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arka Gdynia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87%	0%	13%

Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Górnik Zabrze (1.81) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Górnik Zabrze will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lubik M. (G) 16. Olkowski P. 5. Szczesniak K. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 18. Ambros L. 8. Hellebrand P. 14. Kubicki J. 30. Sow O. 23. Liseth S. 33. Khlan M.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 4. Zator D. 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 31. Rusyn N. 37. Kerk S. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D.
Substitutes
22. Abdullahi A. 28. Donio B. 19. Dziegielewski N. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 79. Goh Young-Jun 81. Kmet M. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 92. Pietryga P. (G) 55. Pingot M. 10. Podolski L. 7. Zahovic L.	33. Abramowicz D. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 94. Gojny D. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 8. Sidibe A. 7. Sobczak S. 21. Szysz P. 14. Vitalucci H.
Coaches
Gasparik M.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Hellebrand P. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Liseth S. ⚽, Ambros L. (A),
22', Marcjanik M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', 1 - 1, Rusyn N. ⚽,
50', 2 - 1, Khlan M. ⚽, Ambros L. (A),
59', 3 - 1, Hellebrand P. ⚽, Khlan M. (A),
61', Sow O. (Pen),
62', 4 - 1, Sow O. ⚽,
63', Hellebrand P. ↓, Donio B. ↑,
64', Ambros L. ↓, Zahovic L. ↑,
64', Kerk S. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
64', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Gojny D. ↑,
64', Marcjanik M. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
71', 5 - 1, Zahovic L. ⚽, Kubicki J. (A),
75', Khlan M. ↓, Kmet M. ↑,
75', Liseth S. ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
75', Sow O. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
76', Kocyla D. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,
76', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
80', Zator D. 🟨,
84', Sidibe A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 3.

Górnik Zabrze is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Górnik Zabrze may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Górnik Zabrze is the team to beat.

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Sacek M. (Leg Injury)

We predict that Górnik Zabrze will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Zabrze won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Korona Kielce - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cracovia - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWTWT
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2
Club Friendly
13.07.21	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.07.20	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2
14.02.20	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	2:0
30.08.19	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:0
22.04.19	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	1:0
15.12.18	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	1:1

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