Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 10

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1


	Zagłębie Lubin		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.35	Watch
	2.14	3.3	3.75
	1.10	9.47	20.06	Watch
	2.09	3.45	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.05)	4.6 ↑ (3.47)	6.8 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
59.4%

Draw
24.2%

Arka Gdynia
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

27%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Lubin's performance.

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arka Gdynia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Lubin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arka Gdynia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.3%	9.1%	13.6%

Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). Arka will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Zagłębie Lubin (2.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Zagłębie Lubin will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Arka (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hladun D. (G) 16. Corluka J. 25. Nalepa M. 5. Lawniczak A. 35. Lucic L. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 39. Kocaba F. 44. Regula M. 18. Radwanski A. 77. Szmyt K. 55. Rocha L.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 4. Zator D. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 18. Celestine J. 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 8. Sidibe A. 33. Abramowicz D. 21. Szysz P. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 35. Jakubczyk K.
Substitutes
1. Buric J. (G) 27. Diaz J. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 26. Kolan J. 9. Kosidis M. 6. Makowski T. 4. Michalski D. 19. Sypek J. 17. Wdowiak M. 11. Wozniak A. 3. Yakuba R.	9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 37. Kerk S. 11. Kocyla D. 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 31. Rusyn N. 7. Sobczak S. 14. Vitalucci H.
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Radwanski A. ⚽, Corluka J. (A),
7', 2 - 0, Rocha L. ⚽, Szmyt K. (A),
26', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
33', 3 - 0, Nalepa M. ⚽, Radwanski A. (A),
36', Celestine J. 🟨,
44', 4 - 0, Radwanski A. ⚽, Rocha L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Abramowicz D. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
46', Sidibe A. ↓, Kerk S. ↑,
46', Celestine J. ↓, Hermoso K. ↑,
46', Szysz P. ↓, Rusyn N. ↑,
58', Kerk S. 🟨,
67', Regula M. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
67', Rocha L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
78', Lawniczak A. ↓, Yakuba R. ↑,
78', Radwanski A. ↓, Dziewiatowski M. ↑,
81', Nguiamba A. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
89', Szmyt K. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Zagłębie Lubin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Arka: Gojny D. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.6:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Wisła Płock - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WTWTL
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:0 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Widzew Łódź - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
01.12.21	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.06.20	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin	3:2
13.12.19	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1
10.08.19	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	2:0
17.03.19	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	0:0
07.10.18	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1
23.02.18	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	0:0

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