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Górnik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, March 15, 2026)

Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 25

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla (Zabrze)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Strike, Strike
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Górnik Zabrze		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.48	3.1	2.78
	2.56	3.26	2.93
	2.53	3.29	2.87	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8
	2.46	3.13	2.88	Watch
	2.59	3.11	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.59)	3.16 ↑ (3.11)	2.78 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Zabrze
37.3%

Draw
29.4%

Raków Częstochowa
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.7%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.1%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Raków will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Zabrze: 11.9% – 76.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Górnik Zabrze (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lubik M. (G) 16. Olkowski P. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 13. Sadilek L. 8. Hellebrand P. 18. Ambros L. 7. Ikia Dimi Y. 23. Liseth S. 33. Khlan M.	48. Zych O. (G) 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 5. Bulat M. 6. Repka O. 11. Adriano 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 10. Lopez I. 17. Rocha L.
Substitutes
4. Bochniewicz P. 11. Domingues B. 28. Donio B. 14. Kubicki J. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 10. Podolski L. 36. Rakoczy M. 77. Rupanov B. 21. Sauer M. 5. Szczesniak K. 67. Zmrzly O.	22. Abraham O. 18. Brunes J. 39. Brusberg I. 27. Dawidowicz P. 35. Ilenic M. 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 20. Silva J. C. 23. Struski K. 1. Trelowski K. (G) 29. Zolneczko W. (G)
Coaches
Gasparik M.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Sadilek L. ⚽,
43', 2 - 0, Ambros L. ⚽, Janza E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ikia Dimi Y. ↓, Zmrzly O. ↑,
46', Lopez I. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
46', Adriano ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
46', Rocha L. ↓, Brunes J. ↑,
46', Bulat M. ↓, Struski K. ↑,
68', Josema ↓, Bochniewicz P. ↑,
72', Racovitan B. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Ameyaw M. ⚽, Struski K. (A),
88', 3 - 1, Sadilek L. ⚽, Khlan M. (A),
90', Liseth S. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
90', Khlan M. ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
90+1', Hellebrand P. ↓, Donio B. ↑,
90+2', Podolski L. 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Górnik Zabrze may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Górnik Zabrze has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Lukoszek K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Raków: Silva J. C. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Zabrze won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

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Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Gornik Zabrze: 11.07%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Gornik Zabrze	27	12	6	9	39:32	7	42
6	Rakow	27	11	6	10	36:34	2	39

Last Results with these Odds

Górnik Zabrze - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.45%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 36.87%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Motor Lublin - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
04.03.26	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.02.26	GKS Katowice - Górnik Zabrze	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLLT
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
21.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
21.02.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	1:0
18.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
19.04.24	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
22.10.23	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:1
18.02.23	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	2:0
07.08.22	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	1:0

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