Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 24 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Referee: Nalbandyan H. (Arm)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	Canal+ Live 14
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 12, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	HJK		Dinamo Minsk

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.25	3
	2.3	3.1	2.85
	2.45	3.2	2.95	Watch
	2.48	3.25	3.11
	2.42	3.23	2.92	Watch
	2.49	3.46	2.89
	2.45	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.1)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	2.95 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
38.9%

Draw
29.1%

Dinamo Minsk
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27.9%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

28.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Dinamo Minsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dinamo Minsk than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.9%	22.7%	36.4%

HJK - Dinamo Minsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 7 - 35%). Dinamo Minsk will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dinamo Minsk: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Nijhuis T. (G) 3. Antzoulas G. 4. Toivio J. (C) 5. O'Shaughnessy D. 28. Ylitolva M. 23. Kokcu O. 8. Kanellopoulos G. 30. Pallas N. 22. Moller L. 94. Erwin L. 7. Hostikka S.	21. Lapoukhov F. (G) 2. Pigas V. 33. Polyakov D. 4. Gavrilovich A. 66. Rai 24. Kulikov D. 8. Selyava A. (C) 88. Demchenko N. 74. Sedko P. 9. Alfred S. 17. Bakhar I.
Substitutes
99. Albanese A. 17. Bande H. 24. Boamah M. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 21. Kujasalo N. 10. Lingman L. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 85. Maenpaa N. (G) 42. Meriluoto K. 80. Palumets K. 9. Plange L. 37. Tanaka A.	29. Amian B. 26. Kalinin V. 49. Karatai A. (G) 10. Khvashchinskiy V. 81. Melnichenko T. 3. Okoro J. 25. Pedro Igor 19. Podstrelov D. 6. Politevich S. 13. Shimakovich I. (G) 80. Shkolik I. 11. Zherdev G.
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Skripchenko V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Alfred S. 🟨,
40', Polyakov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Moller L. ⚽,
56', Sedko P. ↓, Pedro Igor ↑,
56', Selyava A. ↓, Kalinin V. ↑,
62', Antzoulas G. 🟨,
65', Hostikka S. ↓, Bande H. ↑,
67', Kulikov D. ↓, Amian B. ↑,
71', Moller L. 🟨,
79', Moller L. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
79', Erwin L. ↓, Plange L. ↑,
80', Gavrilovich A. ↓, Shkolik I. ↑,
80', Demchenko N. ↓, Melnichenko T. ↑,
82', Melnichenko T. 🟥,
83', Plange L. (Pen),
89', Antzoulas G. ↓, Lyons-Foster B. ↑,
90+10', Kalinin V. 🟨,

Preview

HJK has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Dinamo Minsk is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

HJK could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.81%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.10.24	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	HJK - Haka	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.10.24	Lugano - HJK	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.09.24	HJK - Ilves	0:1 ✺
20.09.24	VPS Vaasa - HJK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- FC Dinamo Minsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
19.10.24	Dinamo Minsk - Slavia Mozyr	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Naftan - Dinamo Minsk	1:2 ✺
06.10.24	Shakhtyor Soligorsk - Dinamo Minsk	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.10.24	Dinamo Minsk - Hearts	1:2 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
28.09.24	Dinamo Minsk - Isloch Minsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLW

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