Match Info

Date: 12 August 2021, Thursday


	HJK		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.8	3.75	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.5
	1.84	3.39	4.8
	1.75	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.44	4.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.73)	3.52 ↓ (3.72)	4.3 ↑ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
52%

Draw
26.4%

Neftchi Baku
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

24.9%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

17%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

The chances for Neftchi Baku have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HJK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neftchi Baku could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69%	22.5%	8.5%

HJK - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 49 - 69%). Neftchi will win (votes: 6 - 8.5%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 22.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 58.2% – 79.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

2nd leg. Neutral location - Bolt Arena. 1st leg result: 2-2.

HJK is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Neftchi is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Neftchi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match HJK is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches HJK won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
07.08.21	KTP Kotka - HJK	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
03.08.21	Neftchi Baku - HJK	2:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.07.21	HJK - SJK	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.07.21	HJK - Malmö	2:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.07.21	HJK - Haka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTTTW
- Neftchi Baku
UEFA Europa League
03.08.21	Neftchi Baku - HJK	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.21	Neftchi Baku - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
21.07.21	Olympiacos Piraeus - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
14.07.21	Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Tbilisi	2:1 ✺
07.07.21	Dinamo Tbilisi - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
03.08.21	Neftchi Baku - HJK	2:2

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