Match Info

Tweede Divisie - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Sportpark Denoek (Hoek)


	HSV Hoek		Excelsior Maassluis

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	4.15	4.75
	1.53	4.45	4.83
	1.53	4.15	4.9	Watch
	2.05	3.55	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.12)	4.08 ↑ (3.55)	4.35 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HSV Hoek
55.9%

Draw
22.7%

Excelsior Maassluis
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

25.8%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25.2%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HSV Hoek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HSV Hoek's performance.

Excelsior Maassluis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Excelsior Maassluis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HSV Hoek than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HSV Hoek that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior Maassluis than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Excelsior Maassluis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

HSV Hoek - Excelsior Maassluis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Murre F. (G) 2. de Poorter R. 21. Martens G. 25. den Engelsman W. 5. de Nooijer Y. 4. Lion J. 10. Aelterman N. 14. Van Hauter R. 7. Hebbelinck K. 20. Schalkwijk S. (C) 9. Hage S.	16. El Fakiri K. (G) 2. Tureaij C. 8. Udenhout J. 11. Tavares Q. 5. Overman G. 17. Slagveer D. 6. van Eerden J. 27. Plank D. 9. Wennekers B. 30. Hamd Y. 3. Ringeling K. (C)
Substitutes
11. Delannoy G. 30. Standaert M. (G) 16. Steenpoorte M. 17. Sula D. 6. Vandecandelaere G. 15. van Gogh R.	26. Bronder S. 4. Heuvelman D. 20. Houwaart M. 24. Lopes Varela D. 23. Pina S. 1. Van der Kleij T. (G) 19. van der Velden S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, de Poorter R. ⚽,
36', Tureaij C. 🟨,
37', Hamd Y. 🟨,
38', den Engelsman W. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
64', 1 - 1, Tavares Q. ⚽,
85', 2 - 1, Sula D. ⚽,
90', 3 - 1, Sula D. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 17 in the zone Tweede Divisie (Relegation)).

Hoek is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Excelsior Maassluis has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Excelsior Maassluis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hoek has had a series of home games.

Hoek is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior Maassluis - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.03%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HSV Hoek
Dutch KNVB Beker
23.09.25	HSV Hoek - Blauw Geel 38	1:0 ✺
Dutch Tweede Divisie
20.09.25	RKAV Volendam - HSV Hoek	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	HSV Hoek - Jong Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.09.25	HSV Hoek - Rijnvogels	6:4 ✺
Dutch Tweede Divisie
30.08.25	Spakenburg - HSV Hoek	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLTWW
- Excelsior Maassluis
Dutch Tweede Divisie
20.09.25	Excelsior Maassluis - Jong Sparta Rotterdam	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Spakenburg - Excelsior Maassluis	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Excelsior Maassluis - Koninklijke HFC	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Katwijk - Excelsior Maassluis	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Excelsior Maassluis - De Treffers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

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