Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 22

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Hebburn Town		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.55	3.75
	1.76	3.89	3.82
	1.77	4.14	3.82	Watch
	1.73	3.5	3.9
	1.73	3.58	4.12
	1.73	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.64)	3.74 ↓ (3.9)	3.9 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hebburn Town
52.2%

Draw
24.4%

Morpeth Town
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

23.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

21.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hebburn Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hebburn Town than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hebburn Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Hebburn Town - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Martin G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 1 - 1, Bollado N. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 1, Heywood A. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 15).

Hebburn is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Morpeth has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Morpeth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hebburn is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Hebburn will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hebburn won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Hebburn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hebburn Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.12.25	Hyde United - Hebburn Town	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Rushall Olympic - Hebburn Town	0:1 ✺
25.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Hebburn Town	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Hebburn Town - Bamber Bridge	2:0 ✺
18.11.25	Hebburn Town - Ilkeston	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WWWWW
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.12.25	Morpeth Town - Prescot Cables	2:0 ✺
02.12.25	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Warrington Town - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Morpeth Town - Rushall Olympic	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Morpeth Town - Hebburn Town	1:1
14.01.25	Hebburn Town - Morpeth Town	2:3
10.09.24	Morpeth Town - Hebburn Town	0:0

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