Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 18

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Ashton United		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.35	2.82
	2.17	3.84	2.72
	1.79	4.04	3.68	Watch
	2.33	3.59	2.77
	1.78	3.75	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.79)	3.71 ↓ (4.04)	3.15 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ashton United
45.4%

Draw
25.1%

Morpeth Town
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

23%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

24.2%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Morpeth Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ashton United - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Hancox M. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Newton S. (Pen),
63', 1 - 2, Myers D. ⚽,
82', 2 - 2, Lusiama E. ⚽,
88', 3 - 2, Robbins J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Ashton has had a series of away games.

Ashton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ashton United - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.83%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
11.11.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Ilkeston - Ashton United	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Ashton United - Cleethorpes Town	0:4 ✺
28.10.25	Warrington Town - Ashton United	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Stockton Town - Ashton United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWLLW
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
11.11.25	Morpeth Town - Stocksbridge Park Steels	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Morpeth Town - Bamber Bridge	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Hyde United - Morpeth Town	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
25.10.25	Bradford Park Avenue - Morpeth Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Morpeth Town - Workington	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
14.12.24	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	1:4
07.09.24	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	0:1
20.01.24	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	3:3
03.10.23	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	4:3
04.02.23	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	1:0
13.09.22	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	3:1
26.03.22	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	2:0

Upcoming Matches