Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 9

Date: 2 December 2025, Tuesday


	Morpeth Town		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.05	2.42
	2.81	3.11	2.46
	2.83	3.19	2.48	Watch
	2.63	3	2.4
	2.69	3.05	2.42
	2.8	3.1	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (3.98)	3.08 ↓ (3.61)	2.43 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
33.2%

Draw
29.5%

Gainsborough Trinity
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

25.2%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

25.1%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Morpeth Town's performance.

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gainsborough Trinity might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Morpeth Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gainsborough Trinity could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gainsborough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Coulson F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 1 - 1, Mulhern E. F. ⚽,

Preview

Postponed due to FA Trophy.

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 4.

Recent form of Morpeth has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gainsborough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Morpeth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gainsborough is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Morpeth won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 1.8:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
29.11.25	Warrington Town - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Morpeth Town - Rushall Olympic	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	3:2 ✺
11.11.25	Morpeth Town - Stocksbridge Park Steels	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Morpeth Town - Bamber Bridge	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWLWW
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
25.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Hebburn Town	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Prescot Cables - Gainsborough Trinity	2:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
18.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Alfreton Town	1:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
08.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Rushall Olympic	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
21.12.24	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0
13.08.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	3:1
13.01.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	0:2
09.09.23	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0
14.01.23	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0
25.10.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:1
04.12.21	Morpeth Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0

Upcoming Matches