Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Hednesford Town		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.35	2.78
	2.23	3.49	2.85
	2.24	3.3	2.86
	2.08	3.33	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.02)	3.37 ↑ (3.34)	2.94 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hednesford Town
41.8%

Draw
27.1%

Gainsborough Trinity
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

27.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

29.1%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hednesford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hednesford Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Rose A. ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, Rose A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hednesford won 0.

Hednesford is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gainsborough is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Gainsborough may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Hednesford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Hednesford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1.6:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hednesford Town
English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	Leek Town - Hednesford Town	0:2 ✺
09.09.25	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Warrington Rylands - Hednesford Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
30.08.25	Hednesford Town - Basford United	3:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
25.08.25	Hednesford Town - Rushall Olympic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTWT
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Whitby Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Rushall Olympic	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
10.09.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Warrington Town	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Cleethorpes Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
02.11.24	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	4:5 penalties
English NPL Premier Division
19.04.19	Gainsborough Trinity - Hednesford Town	0:0
25.08.18	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2
English National League North
13.02.16	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2
12.12.15	Gainsborough Trinity - Hednesford Town	3:1
20.12.14	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:1
09.08.14	Gainsborough Trinity - Hednesford Town	1:0

Upcoming Matches