Match Info

BELGIUM: NATIONAL DIVISION 1 - ROUND 15

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday


	Heist		Excelsior Virton

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.42	2.63
	2.45	3.42	2.52
	2.49	3.44	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.85)	3.43 ↓ (3.8)	2.53 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heist
37.1%

Draw
26.7%

Excelsior Virton
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

23.8%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

22.1%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heist has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Heist's form might have worsened.

Excelsior Virton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excelsior Virton's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heist than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heist, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior Virton than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excelsior Virton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Heist - Excelsior Virton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heist won 1.

Recent matches Heist is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Virton is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Virton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Heist will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Heist won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Heist won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KSK Heist
Belgian National Division 1
26.11.23	Cappellen - Heist	1:2 ✺
11.11.23	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne - Heist	3:2 ✺
03.11.23	Heist - Royal Antwerp 2	2:4 ✺
29.10.23	Leuven B - Heist	1:2 ✺
21.10.23	Heist - Lokeren	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLWL
- Excelsior Virton
Belgian National Division 1
25.11.23	Excelsior Virton - Lokeren	0:1 ✺
19.11.23	Leuven B - Excelsior Virton	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Excelsior Virton - RAAL La Louvière	2:2 ✺
05.11.23	Hoogstraten - Excelsior Virton	3:2 ✺
28.10.23	Excelsior Virton - Thes Sport	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian National Division 1
23.02.19	Excelsior Virton - Heist	1:1
10.11.18	Heist - Excelsior Virton	1:3
10.03.18	Heist - Excelsior Virton	1:1
09.09.17	Excelsior Virton - Heist	1:2
17.05.17	Heist - Excelsior Virton	2:3
13.05.17	Excelsior Virton - Heist	3:2
21.01.17	Excelsior Virton - Heist	2:0

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