Match Info

National League South - Round 25

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Dagenham & Redbridge

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.15	2.92
	2.35	3.26	2.97	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.8
	2.3	3.4	2.93
	2.3	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.16)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	2.92 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
39.8%

Draw
28.7%

Dagenham & Redbridge
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

28.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Dagenham & Redbridge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dagenham & Redbridge than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Hemel Hempstead Town - Dagenham & Redbridge Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Vilhete M. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 8 and 11).

Recent form of Hemel Hempstead has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dagenham's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10:7	3	19
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.97%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Dagenham & Redbridge - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.91%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
30.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Enfield Town	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Maidenhead United	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	0:2 ✺
English National League South
06.12.25	Salisbury - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLTLL
- Dagenham & Redbridge
English National League South
29.12.25	Chelmsford City - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:4 ✺
26.12.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Hornchurch	2:3 ✺
20.12.25	Tonbridge Angels - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:2 ✺
16.12.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Slough Town	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Hanwell Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
25.08.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1
Club Friendly
28.07.18	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:3

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