Match Info

National League South - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: The Meadow (Chesham)


	Chesham United		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	2.92	3.25	2.28
	2.97	3.36	2.3	Watch
	3	3	2.25
	2.94	3.14	2.27
	3	3.2	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.78)	3.19 ↓ (3.34)	2.27 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
30.9%

Draw
28.7%

Hemel Hempstead Town
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

27.8%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

27.5%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chesham (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 0, Oliyide K. ⚽,
85', Noel-Williams I. 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Chesham has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hemel Hempstead has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hemel Hempstead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hemel Hempstead will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chesham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Chesham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.83%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English National League South
20.12.25	Horsham - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Chesham United - Dover Athletic	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Chesham United - Dorking Wanderers	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Chesham United	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Ebbsfleet United - Chesham United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWLL
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
20.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Maidenhead United	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	0:2 ✺
English National League South
06.12.25	Salisbury - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
02.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	0:4 ✺
29.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
18.04.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chesham United	2:0
01.01.25	Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0
English Southern Premier League
21.04.14	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chesham United	2:1
01.01.14	Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:3
30.04.13	Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:2

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