Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Heraclea		Gravina

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.15	3
	2.22	3.21	3.02	Watch
	2.19	3.18	3.03
	2.2	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.18)	3.19 ↑ (3.18)	3.01 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heraclea
41.4%

Draw
28.5%

Gravina
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

28.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

27.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heraclea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Gravina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heraclea than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gravina than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Heraclea - Gravina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Musy Hernandez M. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Basanisi A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
69', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+13', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: )).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Heraclea could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Heraclea won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Gravina	6	3	2	1	12:7	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heraclea Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
18.01.26	Città di Fasano - Heraclea	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Heraclea - Paganese	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Real Normanna - Heraclea	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Ferrandina - Heraclea	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Heraclea - Martina Calcio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLL
- FBC Gravina
Italian Serie D - Group H
18.01.26	Gravina - Nardo	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Città di Fasano - Gravina	4:0 ✺
04.01.26	Gravina - Nola	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Real Normanna - Gravina	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Gravina - Afragolese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
24.09.25	Gravina - Heraclea	1:1

Heraclea - Gravina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide