Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 9

Date: 13 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Anibal Torres Costa (Tubarao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Hercílio Luz		Joinville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	2.85	2.95
	2.4	3	3.01
	2.4	2.95	3.01	Watch
	2.46	2.87	3.07
	2.37	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.67)	2.9 ↑ (2.84)	3 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
38.1%

Draw
31.5%

Joinville
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

31.7%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

30.1%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Hercílio Luz - Joinville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Renan Rocha (G) 9. Alex Henrique 4. Alisson Santana 8. Gabriel Silva 3. Geninho (C) 10. Kadu Barone 6. Leo Herrero 2. Lucas Lopes 5. Matheus Neris 7. Richard 11. Yuri Sousa	1. Bruno Pianissolla (G) 9. Cristian Renato 2. Danilo Belao 11. Danilo Matielo 6. Ernandes 7. Julio Cesar 4. Leo Rigo 10. Lucas de Sa 3. Naldo (C) 8. Vinicius Paulista 5. Yalle
Substitutes
17. Alison 15. Bruno Gabriel 14. Davi Souza 23. Dudu Silva 19. Emanuel Jesus 18. Filipe Fraga 12. Igor Pavan (G) 13. Luizao 21. Luiz Felipe 16. Mateus Mendes 20. Vitinho	25. Alyson 14. Carlos Alexandre 18. Erick Crispim 16. Joao Gabriel 17. Joao Mafra 22. Juninho 23. Keke 20. Marquinhos Brazion 19. Neto A. 21. Rickelme 12. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 15. Ryan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Vinicius Paulista 🟨,
34', Julio Cesar 🟨,
38', Yuri Sousa 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Danilo Matielo ↓, Keke ↑,
46', Julio Cesar ↓, Marquinhos Brazion ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Yuri Sousa ⚽,
51', Keke 🟨,
52', 2 - 0, Alex Henrique ⚽,
55', 2 - 1, Naldo ⚽,
57', 🟨,
58', Leo Herrero ↓, Mateus Mendes ↑,
58', Richard ↓, Alison ↑,
59', Davi Souza 🟨,
59', Yalle ↓, Joao Mafra ↑,
61', Yuri Sousa ↓, Filipe Fraga ↑,
78', Danilo Belao ↓, Ryan ↑,
80', Alison 🟨,
80', Gabriel Silva ↓, Dudu Silva ↑,
80', Alex Henrique ↓, Luizao ↑,
83', Lucas de Sa ↓, Neto A. ↑,
90+1', Marquinhos Brazion 🟨,
90+1', Luizao 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 3.

Hercílio Luz has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Joinville is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Hercílio Luz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:10 (average 1.3:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Hercílio Luz won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:7 (average 1.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.02.25	Concórdia - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
29.01.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Hercílio Luz	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Hercílio Luz - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.02.25	Caravaggio - Joinville	0:1 ✺
06.02.25	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Avaí - Joinville	3:0 ✺
29.01.25	Criciúma - Joinville	3:0 ✺
25.01.25	Joinville - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.24	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
22.10.23	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
26.02.23	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	1:0
03.02.22	Joinville - Hercílio Luz	0:0
21.04.21	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	4:3
21.03.19	Joinville - Hercílio Luz	1:1
29.01.19	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	0:0

Hercílio Luz - Joinville: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide