Match Info

National League North - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Edgar Street (Hereford)


	Hereford		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	2.8
	1.95	3.3	3.25
	2.08	3.45	3.05
	2.17	3.45	3.16
	2.13	3.54	3.09	Watch
	2.1	3.44	3.18
	2.2	3.6	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.2)	3.51 ↓ (3.6)	3.03 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hereford
43.7%

Draw
26.1%

Alfreton Town
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

25.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hereford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Hereford - Alfreton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Williams A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Williams A. ⚽,
62', Leckie J. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 1.

Hereford is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Alfreton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hereford might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hereford won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.9:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.59%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hereford FC
English National League North
25.08.25	Radcliffe - Hereford	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Hereford - Chorley	1:4 ✺
19.08.25	Buxton - Hereford	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Hereford - King`s Lynn Town	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Spennymoor Town - Hereford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLL
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
25.08.25	Alfreton Town - Marine	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Macclesfield Town - Alfreton Town	1:1 ✺
19.08.25	Alfreton Town - South Shields	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Alfreton Town - Darlington	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Bedford Town - Alfreton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
22.02.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0
05.10.24	Alfreton Town - Hereford	0:0
12.03.24	Hereford - Alfreton Town	3:3
24.10.23	Alfreton Town - Hereford	3:1
11.02.23	Hereford - Alfreton Town	0:0
03.09.22	Alfreton Town - Hereford	1:1
02.04.22	Hereford - Alfreton Town	1:2

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